2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 129

On April 26, the Cubs peaked at 17-9. It was such a fantastic start that the Cubs were able to achieve a .500 record the rest of the season and win 85 games. 85 wins would have put them in the playoffs last season, and this year, at worst, they might be only a game or two away from it.

As we all know, after that great start, the ground fell out from under them. It seems like that happens to one or two teams every year. They shoot out of the gate. Sometimes it’s because of a simple early schedule. But the Cubs have played some decent teams in those first 26 games. They played good ball early on. This team can be good.

On July 3, this team was 39-48, the lowest point of the season. In that 61-game series, they were 22-39. But this team can be pretty bad. An ineffective bullpen and an inconsistent offense derailed a promising team. But over time, the Cubs have figured out a lot of things with the bullpen. It has been dominant for the Cubs for a long time now. Hats off to Craig Counsell for managing his guys, Tommy Hottovy for his coaching, and the Cubs front office for bringing in some key new additions to strengthen the group.

That left the inconsistent offense. And I take my hat off to him again. Counsell and the entire Cubs organization have shown a lot of patience with guys like Miguel Amaya and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Slowly but surely we are seeing the fruits. You could see that last night in Miami when Amaya hit a home run for the second day in a row and also had multiple hits for the second day in a row. PCA also had multiple hits and one of them was an electrifying inside-the-park home run.

The bullpen we talked about entered the game with a 3-2 lead and two runners in scoring position. Tyson Miller was in the midst of the comeback this team has experienced, but he uncharacteristically walked two batters to start his outing. That tied the game. It’s certainly difficult to enter the game with runners on second and third base, even with two outs.

After those two walks, the Cubs bullpen went 4⅓ innings in relief, allowing one hit, two walks, and one hit by pitch. When writers and bloggers talk about a bullpen stealing a game, they’re talking about exactly this kind of game. This road game, even against a bad team, could have gone down the drain in an instant. Miller allowed the first run, but then the bullpen just shut down, giving the offense all the time it needed to secure the win.

So here the Cubs are, again one game under .500. This team was last at .500 on June 5th at 31-31. That was a long time ago. But the team is now 25-17 after hitting a season low of nine games under .500. 17-9 to start, 25-17 lately. This team has the potential to be very good. Those two stretches of the season combine to be 42-26, which is a winning percentage of .617, or exactly 100 wins over a full season.

Of course, you can’t just fix the hole in your performance with a fancy redesign. You take the good with the bad. But this team should end up over .500. The Cubs need to play very cleanly the rest of the game. They probably need to win a few of these series like this. And they can’t afford to let a whole series slip away like they did in Cleveland.

First things first. How about winning this series and leaving Miami with a record above .500? Pittsburgh and Washington follow. The Pirates are 6-14 in August, slowing the momentum they built in May, June and July. The Nationals have the third-worst record in the NL. This Miami team has the worst. No one could blame this team for being 5-3 the rest of the trip. That would be a 6-3 road trip and it’s hard to expect even the best teams, even against the worst teams, to do better.

But I ask. Let’s finish this trip 7-2. As I always like to say, be greedy. A 6-3 trip brings them home 69-68…but a 7-2 trip would bring them home 70-67. I think they’re going to need 10 games to make the playoffs. This team left for Miami and had to play 12 games the rest of the way to get to those 10 games. Let’s finish five of those games on this trip.

Three stars:

1. PCA gets my top spot. The inside-the-park home run was the highlight of the game. He added a single and a walk. Since July 31, he’s .297/.338/.563 (wRC+ 145). You know the glove and speed are world class. His bat doesn’t have to be that good for it to produce a ton of value. But it could be that good. He was a lot in the minors. He’s 22. Some guys are just getting drafted at his age.
2. Miguel Amaya added two more hits, a home run, two runs and two runs batted in. While I expected PCA to make progress, Amaya’s turnaround was a pleasant surprise. I’ll admit to wondering if too many injuries took too much development time away from a once-promising talent. But he’s had an impressive stretch, too. Since July 7, he’s slashing .309/.349/.543 (wRC+ 148). He also showed that kind of potency in the minors before injuries derailed him. I’m very excited to watch him in these final 30-plus games.
3. Sorry, Ian. Given the problems this team has had finishing games, I have to tip my hat to Jorge Lopez for the perfect two-strikeout inning he pitched to finish this game. As a Cub, he faced 89 batters, allowed 17 hits, seven walks and two runs, and had 25 strikeouts. He has two saves and two holds. He has a 0.79 ERA and a 2.46 FIP. Since July 26, he has allowed one batter to walk.

Game 129, August 23: Cubs 6, Marlins 3 (64-65)

Fangraphs

As a reminder, Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA ratings and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Porter Hodge (.221). 1⅓ IP, 4 batters, BB, 3 K (W 2-1)
• Hero: Pete Crow Armstrong (.136).
• Buddy: Ian Happ (.126).

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.107).
• Goat: Michael Busch (-.085).
• Child: Cody Bellinger (-.052).

WPA move of the game: Ian Happ’s two-run homer in the third inning gave the Cubs a 3-1 lead. (.169)

*Marlins play of the game: Kyle Stowers walked with the bases loaded and two outs in the fifth inning to tie the game at 3-3. (.140)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s winners: Miguel Amaya received 140 of 179 votes (all remaining votes went to Justin Steele).

Overall Rizzo Award score: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named after Anthony Rizzo, who won the category three times out of the first four years it was introduced and four times overall. He also earned the highest season total of all time at +65.5. The points scale ranges from three points for a superhero to minus three points for a goat.

• Shōta Imanaga +17.5
• Porter Hodge +13
• Seiya Suzuki +12.5
• Ben Brown/Mark Leiter Jr. +11
• Isaac Paredes/Miles Mastrobuoni -9
• Adbert Alzolay -10
• Kyle Hendricks -11
• Pete Crow-Armstrong -11.5
• Christopher Morel -20.5

*Hodge moves up to second place, PCA builds some distance from last place, Happ to +6. Hoerner drops to -3, Busch drops further (to 0), Bellinger drops to +4.5.

Next: Shōta Imanaga (9-3, 3.11) is on the mound. The Cubs are seeking their first three-game winning streak since winning four in a row from August 6-10.