2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 132

Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs offense were a real threat last night in Pittsburgh. It’s always pretty impressive when you do things the organization hasn’t done in over 100 years. Eight stolen bases in a game was definitely one of those things. And then 18 runs? It was a long night for the Pirates pitchers.

That ended up being a good thing, because neither Jameson Taillon, who left with two outs in the seventh inning and ended up being awarded four earned runs, nor the Cubs bullpen were outstanding. Both Jack Neely and Ethan Roberts had to score two runs in one inning. I know Neely was great at Triple-A Iowa. He’s been terrible in Chicago so far.

The game started out pretty boring, with the Cubs leading 3-2 after five innings. For a moment, it looked like they would waste two runs in the second and one run in the third. But Taillon left the tying run on third base in the fifth inning, and then the Cubs offense allowed an 8-run inning to the Pirates in the sixth inning, and the loss was sealed.

With this latest surge, the Cubs have caught up with the Giants in the Wild Card standings. They should almost certainly finish with the eighth-best record in the NL this week. Next up are the Mets. That’s a much bigger challenge, and even then they’re still one spot away from the playoffs. According to Fangraphs, the Cubs’ chances of making the playoffs are about 2.5 percent. With only 30 games left, there’s just not enough time.

The Cubs needed more games against bad teams early in the season. Many of the Cubs’ games against the worst teams in baseball came in the last month and a half of the season. They needed some games like this one in June and July. Not that he was on that team at the time, but for example, the struggling Isaac Paredes collected two hits during the attack, one of them a home run.

Additionally, the Cubs did not have to use any of their leverage relief pitchers, with the exception of Tyson Miller, who was brought in to walk two batters to end the eighth inning after Ethan Roberts got into trouble and it looked like the Pirates would get back in the game.

How many times in June and July, when the Cubs’ season was stalling, could the bullpen have used a stretch like this? They haven’t had to throw a meaningful inning since Friday in Miami. The Cubs head into Game 2 of the series tonight in Pittsburgh and will likely need to use some of these guys. In the first half of the season, it seemed like Adbert Alzolay, Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. were called upon every day to protect a one-run lead.

For the second year in a row, it will be difficult to wonder what might have been. The six current NL playoff teams, the Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Braves, are all very strong on paper and worthy teams for most of the season. And yet this team has blown so many close games, 19-26 in one-score games. If that number is 22-23, you’re at 69-63, a half-game ahead of the Mets and just 2½ behind an injury-ridden Braves team that has struggled at times to maintain its usual pace.

That’s definitely wishful thinking. The Braves, for their part, are only 15-19 in one-point games. The Phillies also have a negative record in one-point games. Jed Hoyer was right when he said that the best teams don’t actually excel in close games. The Brewers are the only one of the six NL playoff teams with over 40 one-point games. They have played 41 and won 22 of them. Half of the 10 games between the Brewers and Cubs can be explained by performance in one-point games.

Let’s look at the three stars on a night where virtually any hitter could have been there. 21 total hits, seven doubles, two home runs, seven walks, eight stolen bases. Two hit batters. That’s a total of 30 baserunners and the hits totaled 34 bases. The team hit .457/.536/.739 in the game.

Three stars:

1. This is a tough call, but I’m giving first place to Miguel Amaya. Four hits and one hit by pitch. Two doubles. Four runs. Miguel is trying to carve out a bigger role for himself in the Cubs’ future plans with this storming second half.
2. While Amaya has Cubs fans wondering if he can be a productive half of a tandem at catcher, Pete Crow-Armstrong has Cubs fans dreaming of a perennial star in this league. PCA had three hits, managed one walk, stole three bases and was generally a threat throughout the game. He tied for the lead in stolen bases on this team with 26 steals. Baseball Reference gives him 1.7 WAR in half a season of play. A big part of that comes from his defense. That would be a season of about 3.5 WAR. That kind of season is about the equivalent of a top-60 offensive player over a full season. He’s 22 and his bat has finally established itself at the major league level.
3. Seiya Suzuki is one of the top three Cubs, along with Amaya and PCA. Seiya had four more hits. One of them was a double. He scored three runs and struck out one.

Game 132, August 26: Cubs 18, Pirates 8 (66-66)

Fangraphs

As a reminder, Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA ratings and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow Armstrong (.288).
• Hero: Miguel Amaya (.162). 4-5, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 4 R
• Buddy: Jameson Taillon (.108). 6⅔ IP, 27 batters, 8 H, 4 R, 3 K (W 9-8)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.190) 1-7, RBI, R
• Goat: Isaac Paredes (-.057).
• Child: Dansby Swanson (-.004).

WPA move of the game: Bryan Reynolds hit a home run to cut the Cubs’ lead to 3-2 in the third inning. (.106)

*Cubs play of the game: Miguel Amaya’s two-run double in the sixth inning put the Cubs back up by three runs. (.101)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s winners: Ian Happ (49 votes) has pushed Javier Assad (39)

Overall Rizzo Award score: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named after Anthony Rizzo, who won the category three times out of the first four years it was introduced and four times overall. He also earned the highest season total of all time at +65.5. The points scale ranges from three points for a superhero to minus three points for a goat.

• Shōta Imanaga +18.5
• Seiya Suzuki +13,5
• Porter Hodge +13
• Ben Brown/Mark Leiter Jr. +11
• Miles Mastrobuoni -9
• Adbert Alzolay -10
• Kyle Hendricks/Isaac Paredes -11
• Christopher Morel -20.5

*PCA escapes the last 5 with -7.5, Amaya with -6, Taillon with +6. Busch, one of the leaders for a long time, drops to -6, Paredes falls to joint second to last, Swanson to -6.

Next: Game two in Pittsburgh. The Cubs are looking to win their fourth series in a row with Justin Steele (4-5, 3.07) on the mound. They have no choice but to win practically every single game.