While Republicans and Democrats drift into their extreme camps, Colorado’s electorate continues to be dominated by unaffiliated voters who vote with their feet and reject both parties.
According to the latest party affiliation figures released by the Colorado Secretary of State, as of August 1, there were 1,862,600 unaffiliated voters, or 48.5%, Democrats 997,611, or 26%, and Republicans in third place with 896,726, or 23.4%.
This dramatic shift in Colorado’s electorate came after decades of the state being divided into three-thirds Republican, Democrat and unaffiliated voters. A clear majority of voters, over 65%, chose Democrat or Republican, with unaffiliated voters making up about a third.
From the 1970s through the early 2000s, Colorado was a truly competitive state, with statewide elections, as well as elections to Congress and the state legislature, taking place on relatively evenly competitive ground. These elections required the very best candidates and campaigns, and the party that rose to the challenge in those races would win.
A massive migration of more than 800,000 people began in 2010, and over the next decade these newcomers dramatically changed Colorado’s electorate. Although many of these new residents were younger and more liberal in their social attitudes, they did not automatically register as Democrats.
They opted for non-partisanship, which led to today’s significantly above-average numbers, which represent half of the electorate.
Yet these new, unaffiliated voters have turned Colorado into a Democratic state, delivering big Democratic victories across the board since 2016, when Trump was first nominated for president. Even more than embracing Democrats, they rejected Donald Trump and the brand of politics that, in their eyes, defined all Republican candidates.
Are these unaffiliated voters permanently entrenched as reliable Democratic voters? The overwhelming opposition to the Proposition HH property tax increase in November 2023 suggests that, once you remove the anti-Trump factor from the question, they may still be right of center on basic tax and spending issues.
Regardless of who wins the presidential election nationally, there is no indication that Colorado will be anywhere near competitive in 2024. Republican candidates for Congress and the state legislature must run effective campaigns focused on the issues affecting their district, not wallow in a bitter presidential race.
Recent victories in congressional and state legislative primaries by strong Republican candidates who rejected the narrow ideology of election fraud conspiracy theorists suggest that some measure of balance may be restored in what is effectively a one-party Democratic state.
It is fashionable for supporters of the election fraud conspiracy that now controls the leadership of the Colorado Republican Party to claim that the Republicans who led the party before Trump took office in 2016 are irrelevant.
They are convinced that the Republicans can only win if they amplify their conspiracy theories and deprive independent voters of the opportunity to cast their vote in the primaries.
They seem to be convinced that a narrowly focused Republican minority of 23.4% can somehow defeat the other 76% of the electorate, which represents Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Soon, the percentage of unaffiliated voters will rise above 50%, while the two political parties continue to decline. They will not be content to sit idly by while two partisan minority parties dominate the nomination process that determines what options they have in a general election. They want to be involved in the political process from start to finish, not just choose between the options presented to them by political insiders.
Democrats continue to fend off emerging challengers from the Democratic Socialist camp, while Republicans wallow in electoral fraud conspiracies.
The first political party to recognize that Colorado is moving steadily toward a post-partisan future dominated by unaffiliated voters who reject the extremes of both parties will be the party that can win.
Dick Wadhams is a former Colorado Republican state chairman and worked for U.S. Senator Bill Armstrong for nine years before managing campaigns for U.S. Senators Hank Brown and Wayne Allard, Governor Bill Owens and U.S. Senator John Thune of South Dakota.
Dick Wadhams is a former Colorado Republican state chairman and worked for U.S. Senator Bill Armstrong for nine years before managing campaigns for U.S. Senators Hank Brown and Wayne Allard, Governor Bill Owens and U.S. Senator John Thune of South Dakota.
