Looking at the standings, you’d think the Royals should easily handle the Reds — even in Cincinnati. They’re not a team with a nearly .500 record. If the Royals are good, you could argue they should win at least two out of three games. But as mentioned in the series preview, the Reds’ Pythagorean record is even more unlucky than the Royals’: They’re a whopping 12 games worse than their run differential would suggest.
In addition, Nick Martinez will pitch for the Reds tonight. Martinez has never spent a full major league season as a starter. He has played nearly four times as many games as a relief pitcher this year as a starter. But now, let’s quote the series preview again:
Nick Martinez has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen this year, but he has been fantastic since joining the rotation in August, allowing just five hits and no runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. He has the lowest walk rate of all pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched, while only giving up two free throws in 36 innings since mid-June. He avoids barrels and has the lowest hard hit rate in baseball.
He can be beaten like any pitcher, but it won’t be easy.
The Royals will start Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen was revolutionary in his first start against the Tigers, but his debut at Kauffman was not quite as good, allowing three runs without getting past the fifth inning in what was ultimately a loss for the Royals. Perhaps an even worse omen is the fact that he has already started against the Reds once this year, when he was with the Rangers. In one of his worst starts, he allowed five runs in six innings, and the Rangers ultimately lost the game 8-4.
Lorenzen was brought in to eat up some innings for the team, and if there’s one thing Royals fans of the past few years are familiar with, it’s modern-day inning eaters. It used to be a term that described guys who pitched so well you never wanted to take them out. Today, it describes guys who probably won’t completely blow the game, but won’t pitch with any kind of dominance, either.
The Royals catch the Reds at what appears to be a bad time, as they do in many of their series against mediocre or better teams. They have been in top form, winning four in a row. The Royals will have to play excellent baseball tonight if they want to win. They have it in them, but whether they can show it is uncertain.
Lineups
Look, I know Hunter Renfroe is on a losing streak. And I know Adam Frazier had three hits on Wednesday. But continuing to have him on the roster and continuing to have him start is infuriating. No matter how bad you think Renfroe’s defense is on the right side, Frazier’s is even worse. We could have Tyler Gentry instead!
Also, if the team lineup tweets hadn’t highlighted it, I would have forgotten that today is Player’s Weekend again. Of course, the funny nicknames and other silly things are over. There are just a few more custom boots at the event now than usual. How exciting. Hats off to the Reds for including nicknames in their lineup tweet, but hats off to them for not using their real names either. Hats off to the Royals for something But the un-hat tip to just add numbers, and the double un-hat tip to make it look like a ransom note made from magazine clippings.
