The story is mostly made up of banal things, but is remembered for its remarkable aspects. For historians of Chinese diplomacy, China’s success in Restoration diplomatic relations between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia will probably be remembered as a turning point. The signing of the Beijing Declaration The appeal by 14 Palestinian groups for unity should have raised further eyebrows – in a highly unstable region, China has managed to keep the cats in check, at least for a while.
Can China build on this and become a global peacemaker?
The prerequisite for the role of peacemaker is that one trusts him to be neutral or, more precisely, impartial. The neutrality of great powers is usually not very reliable because, given the realism of international relations, they could, out of self-interest, change the distribution of power in the world in their favor. That is why when one thinks of honest brokers, one often thinks of middle powers such as Norway, Switzerland and Sweden.
But China stands out. Unlike Great Britain or Franceit has no historical burden of being a colonizer. Unlike Russia, which would use force to maintain its spheres of influence, China does not need such spheres because its influence, especially in the global economy, is omnipresent. And unlike the United States, China has shown that no missionary zeal to control the world through hegemony or alliances. All of China’s military operations abroad in recent decades, whether for peacekeeping, anti-piracy or disaster relief, have been without exception humanitarian in nature.
If China has ventured into deeper waters in the Middle East, it is in Ukraine, where Beijing has done its best to find balance in a war between two of its friends.
It has almost never voted against or vetoed any UN resolution condemning Russia, but has merely abstained. While the US-led NATO has provided full military support to Ukraine, Beijing has not provided Moscow with military aid or weapons. While China’s trade with Russia has helped it, Circumventing Western sanctionsbut the trade took place before the war and does not violate any international rules or regimes. Last year, China remained Ukraine’s largest trading partner, with trade turnover of about $12.9 billion.
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China skips international peace conference on Ukraine and calls for negotiations “as soon as possible”
China skips international peace conference on Ukraine and calls for negotiations “as soon as possible”
It remains to be seen how China’s 12-point peace plan and his six points joint proposal with Brazil could work. After all, China is not the only country that has put forward a peace plan, and all peace plans are based on the premise of a ceasefire.
But none of these is in sight. Russia must take full control of the four annexed regions to be able to declare victory in eastern Ukraine, while a Ukraine fully supported by the West has every reason not to give up any territory.
However, no war can last forever. As the Ukrainian armed forces lose ground and the United States prepares for a presidential election that fundamentally change Given Western support for Ukraine, it may be essential for Kyiv to reach out to Beijing.
During his first Travel to China Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said that “a just peace” in Ukraine is in China’s strategic interest and that Beijing’s role as a “global force for peace” is important.
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Ukraine declares its readiness to resume negotiations with Russia in good faith
Ukraine declares its readiness to resume negotiations with Russia in good faith
Beijing can help in at least three ways. First, it can facilitate a ceasefire dialogue between Moscow and Kiev. Russia was not among the Peace Summit took place in Switzerland in June, and China did not attend. Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a second peace summit in a southern country and suggested inviting Russia. Could this southern country be China? If the warring parties agree, Beijing could well be a willing host.
Second, China, together with other major powers, could provide a collective security guarantee for a ceasefire, the most likely scenario so far after a ceasefire. Without such a guarantee, Ukraine can never be sure that Russia will remain satisfied with what it has annexed, and Russia would have to fear that the annexed territories will become a second Afghanistan, with Ukrainian fighters playing the role of Mujahideen of the 1980s.
More questions will arise. If Ukraine has to give up part of its territory, where will the new border be? Will the disputed area be placed under international trusteeship and referendums held so residents can express their preferences? Will peacekeepers be allowed to monitor the ceasefire lines?
None of these problems can be solved bilaterally by Moscow and Kiev. They are calling for the involvement of the United Nations and comprehensive Sino-American cooperation. If Russia would listen to anyone, it would be China. The US therefore has a duty to ensure Ukrainian cooperation.
Third, China is better placed than any other country to help with post-war reconstruction, whether in Ukraine or Gaza. In March last year, the World Bank estimated the cost of rebuilding and restoring Ukraine’s infrastructure at $411 billion, more than double its gross domestic product in 2023. According to the UN, rebuilding Gaza will cost at least $40-50 billion, with rebuilding the destroyed homes alone taking at least 16 years.
While it is still unclear who will finance reconstruction in Ukraine and Gaza, China’s unmatched infrastructure-building capabilities can certainly help.
It is fascinating to see how Beijing is gaining influence in Europe and the Middle East, where it has traditionally sought economic gains and downplayed its security role. When China began reforms in the late 1970s, it was “Crossing the river by feeling the stones”. It is now wading into the ocean and there is no seabed to reach or turn back to. Being a responsible world power comes at a price.
Colonel Zhou Bo (retired) is a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.
