Top line
New polls from the New York Times and Siena College point to a neck-and-neck race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in four Sun Belt states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina – marking a turning point for Democrats as Harris benefits from increasing support among black, female and young voters.
US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the American Federation of Teachers’ … (+)
Key data
NEW – Arizona: Harris has a lead over Trump among likely voters in Arizona, with the Times/Siena poll putting her ahead of the former president by 50 to 45 percent, and a four-point lead among registered voters.
NEW – Georgia: According to the poll, Trump remains four percentage points ahead among likely voters and seven percentage points ahead among registered voters.
NEW – Nevada: Trump currently has two percentage points among likely and registered voters. In May, some polls put his lead over President Biden at nine percentage points.
NEW – North Carolina: Harris now leads among likely voters (2 points) and registered voters (4 points), a significant change from Trump’s lead over Biden in May, which was seven points.
Pennsylvania: According to Cook’s July 26-August 2 poll of 2,867 likely voters, Harris leads Trump by one percentage point in a head-to-head race, 49% to 48%, with 3% of voters still undecided, overtaking Trump’s three-point lead over Biden that Cook had in a May poll.
Michigan: Here, too, Harris is three percentage points ahead of Trump, with 49% to 46%, although 5% of voters are still undecided; in May, Trump was ahead by two percentage points.
Wisconsin: If the election were held today, Harris would beat Trump by three percentage points here, 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided voters, after Trump was tied with Biden here in May.
The Cook poll comes days after a New York Times/Siena poll also found Harris leading Trump by four percentage points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found she would also beat him in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, but Trump would win in North Carolina.
tangent
Harris is getting more support from younger, non-white and female voters – demographics that were still undecided about supporting him before Biden’s withdrawal. The Times found that Harris was supported by 84 percent of black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before he withdrew from the race in July.
Large number
One. That’s the total number of points Harris is ahead by in the seven swing states, according to the Cook poll.
Important background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, although he insisted on continuing his campaign despite intra-party revolts following his June 27 debate appearance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination, and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call vote. Before Biden dropped out of the race, polls consistently showed Trump would beat him in most swing states, even though Biden had won six of the seven (except North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
More information
Polls Trump vs. Harris 2024: Trump narrowly leads in most polls after Biden drops out (Forbes)
Trump’s lead over Biden and Harris has jumped after the RNC, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 polls: Here’s who will win in the 6 crucial states (Forbes)
