MONTPELIER, Vermont (WCAX) – Tuesday’s Vermont primary election will set the course for who will be on the ballot in November and possibly a shift in the balance of power in the Statehouse.
Partisan tensions between Republican Governor Phil Scott and the Democratic two-thirds majority in the legislature have escalated in recent years. This year, Democrats have overridden six vetoes.
“I think we’re seeing a kind of pendulum swing here,” says Dennise Casey, a Vermont-based political consultant.
In the last election, Democrats secured 104 seats in the House of Representatives and 22 in the Senate. But the high turnover in the upper house could mean that more moderate candidates who may side with the governor could be on the ballot in November.
In the central Chittenden district, longtime television host Stewart Ledbetter, a moderate Democrat, is challenging three incumbents – Senators Martine Gulick, Tanya Vyhovsky and Phil Baruth.
Casey and other political observers are watching the election closely to see if candidates who support Phil Scott on vetoes will win on Tuesday. “A handful of moderate, centrist candidates are running, banking on messages around the need for more affordable housing, tax focus and the need to stimulate the economy,” Casey said.
Vermont has an open primary election, with every candidate on the ballot regardless of party affiliation. Democrats are confident that they have built a strong slate of candidates and that their two-thirds majority in the House and Senate will hold. “We have put ourselves in a good position to get two-thirds majorities in both chambers so that we can pass a legislative program that will take Vermont into the future,” said Democratic Party Chairman Jim Dandeneau.
But Paul Dame, chairman of the Vermont Republican Party, says even if more moderate Democrats are elected, Vermonters won’t see a more moderate agenda in Montpelier until more Republicans are in power. “If Republicans stay in the position we’re in – 10 seats away from being outvoted in the House – then I wouldn’t expect Democrats to vote any differently regardless of the primary,” he said.
In July, there were 498,853 registered voters in Vermont. In the 2022 midterm primary, turnout was about 27% of registered voters. About 34% of the votes in that election were cast before primary day. As of Wednesday, a total of 14,871 votes had been cast before primary day.
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