Gold prices are rising amid economic uncertainty, while US oil production growth is slowing and the global economic outlook remains volatile.
Gold prices rise amid economic uncertainty
The price of gold has been on an upward trend, reaching new highs recently. This increase can be attributed to several factors, including investor concerns about economic instability and geopolitical tensions. As a traditional safe haven, gold often increases in value during times of market uncertainty. In addition, expectations about potential interest rate cuts by central banks can affect the price of gold, as lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold.
US oil production growth slows
Crude oil production in the US has increased, but at a slower rate than expected. This slowdown in production growth is having an impact on the global oil market. The OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries may be able to adjust their production volumes more flexibly to balance supply and demand. The Permian Basin in the US remains an important contributor to domestic oil production.
The global economic outlook remains uncertain
The global economy continues to show signs of volatility, currency fluctuations and concerns about economic growth persist. The US dollar has shown signs of consolidation after a period of strength. Central banks around the world are navigating a complex environment and must balance the need to support economic growth with the need to control inflation. The release of economic data from major economies is closely watched by investors and policymakers as they assess the overall economic outlook and possible policy adjustments.
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The most important economic events of the next week:
- Monthly budget overview
– Start: 08.12.2024 18:00
– Name: Monthly budget statement
– Impact: Medium
– Currency: USD
– Description: This statement provides insight into the U.S. government’s budget balance, reflecting the difference between revenue and expenditure. It can impact fiscal policy discussions and influence investor sentiment toward U.S. Treasury bonds.
- Westpac Consumer Confidence
– Start: 13.08.2024 00:30
– Name: Westpac Consumer Confidence
– Impact: Medium
– Currency: AUD
– Description: This index measures consumer confidence in Australia and indicates the level of optimism about the economic situation. A higher reading is positive for the AUD and indicates increased consumer spending.
- ZEW survey – economic expectations
– Start: 13.08.2024 09:00
– Name: ZEW survey – Economic expectations
– Impact: Medium
– Currency: EUR
– Description: The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index measures the six-month economic outlook for Germany. It is an important indicator of economic health and can influence EUR movements depending on whether the results exceed or fall short of expectations.
- Producer price index excl. food and energy (year-on-year comparison)
– Start: 13.08.2024 12:30
– Name: Producer Price Index excl. food and energy (year-on-year comparison)
– Impact: High
– Currency: USD
– Description: This index measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers, excluding food and energy. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation, and a higher than expected reading could trigger concerns about rising inflation and influence Fed policy and the strength of the USD.
- RBNZ interest rate decision
– Start: 14.08.2024 02:00
– Name: RBNZ interest rate decision
– Impact: High
– Currency: NZD
– Description: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its decision on interest rates. Changes in interest rates can have a significant impact on the NZD and affect inflation and economic growth.
- Gross domestic product (QoQ)
– Start: 14.08.2024 09:00
– Name: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
– Impact: High
– Currency: EUR
– Description: This report measures the quarterly change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health in the euro area.
- Retail sales (MoM)
– Start: 15.08.2024 12:30
– Name: Retail Sales (MoM)
– Impact: High
– Currency: USD
– Description: This report measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a significant share of overall economic activity in the United States. A strong reading can strengthen the USD.
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