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From Alexander JonesInternational banker
On July 31, the United States announced a $500 million military financing package for the Philippines, which was later confirmed during a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with their respective Filipino counterparts, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Secretary of Defense Gilberto Teodoro. Like the series of U.S. military packages already delivered to Taiwan, this latest announcement is raising fears in the region that growing U.S. hostility toward China could not only escalate military provocations against China, but also over-militarize Southeast Asia and inflict significant economic damage on the Philippines. But can the regime of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. in Manila manage the delicate balancing act necessary to prevent a serious escalation of hostilities between the major powers?
To fully understand the role of the Philippines in this looming conflict, one would have to go back to the turn of the 20th century.th Century and the decision of the United States to annex the Southeast Asian archipelago state in 1899. Spain’s military victory in the Spanish-American War a year earlier resulted in Spain ceding its colonial possessions – including the Philippines – to the United States. The ensuing war between American forces and Filipino independence fighters led to a brutal conflict that lasted at least three years. There were sporadic fights in the years that followed before the United States gained complete control of the Philippines and maintained colonial rule over the islands until independence in 1946.
Twenty years later, the brutal dictatorial rule of Ferdinand Marcos began, with the support of the United States. In fact, Marcos Sr. was described by the Harvard Divinity School (HDS) as a “nationalist president who is remembered as a corrupt dictator who ushered in an era of political repression and violence” and that his leadership in his second term had seriously impoverished the country, with the main blame placed squarely on Marcos himself.
“Marcos imposed martial law in the run-up to the 1973 elections… He secretly supported public violence that justified martial law and permitted the arrest of his challengers, notably opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr., but also left-wing activists, academics, journalists, priests and nuns, and students,” Harvard reported, adding that after nationwide protests against voter fraud broke out, “American helicopters flew Marcos and his family to Guam and then into exile in Hawaii, where he died in 1989.” The Presidential Commission on Good Government (PCGG) established in the Philippines calculated that Marcos had amassed a personal fortune of $5 billion to $10 billion during his rule, most of which had been stolen from the Central Bank of the Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, or BSP).
Following the election victory of his son, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in May 2022, and the markedly adversarial relationship between the United States and Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, a new President Marcos seems primed to represent predominantly American interests in the region, focused almost exclusively on fighting China. In practice, this means not only agreeing to an expanded U.S. military presence in the Philippines—Marcos Jr. has granted American forces and weapons access to four more Philippine military bases since taking office, bringing the number of locations where U.S. troops can be stationed indefinitely to nine under a 2014 agreement—but also escalating tensions with Beijing on both the economic and military fronts.
The US explains its troop buildup in the country in response to what it sees as Chinese aggression against the Philippines amid territorial disputes between the two countries in the South China Sea over “freedom of navigation” and maritime flows in global trade. The justification for the troop buildup is an ugly, if minor, standoff on June 18 between Filipino fishing boats and the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) near the widely disputed Second Thomas Reef in the Spratly Islands. The reef lies about 105 nautical miles west of the Philippine island of Palawan and is claimed by several countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Manila’s claims to the surrounding waters were reiterated when it beached its warship BRP Sierra Madre there in 1999. Controversially, it is still there, with a Philippine Navy garrison on the ship.
Yet by caving in to U.S. military interests in the region, the Philippines is playing a dangerous, perhaps even suicidal game, given the country’s long and thriving economic relationship with Beijing. According to 2023 figures, China is by far the Philippines’ top trading partner, with $41 billion worth of exports and imports traded last year. Japan is the second-largest trading partner with just $21 billion, followed by the U.S. in third place with $20 billion—less than half of China’s. The Marcos administration’s Cabinet Economic Cluster is all too aware of this reality. “Our position is that we will not impose unnecessary trade and investment barriers on any country, including China,” Arsenio Balisacan, secretary of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), said in June. The country “needs investment and exports” to boost economic growth, Balisacan added.
The key question that must be asked, then, is why the Philippines would agree to become a virtual outpost for US military ambitions against China when so much of its economic wealth comes from none other than China. “The Americans are the ones pushing the Philippine government to go there to look for a fight and eventually maybe start a war,” former President Rodrigo Duterte said in an April 12 interview with China’s state-run news channel. Global times“But I don’t think America will die for us.”
Perhaps nowhere was this attitude more clearly demonstrated than by the revelations of a Reuters The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has admitted to spreading propaganda aimed at disparaging China’s COVID-19 vaccine Sinovac during the COVID pandemic in the Philippines, according to a June 25 report cited by a former senior government official earlier this month. Reuters was able to confirm the content through a source familiar with the US response. “It is true that the (Defense Department) sent messages to Filipino listeners questioning the safety and effectiveness of Sinovac,” said the document, which refers to information sent by the US Department of Defense to the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and Department of National Defense (DND).
For their part, China and the Philippines have tried to ease tensions. On July 22, it was agreed that Manila would continue to supply the BRP garrison Sierra Madre. “Both sides continue to recognize the need to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation. They agree that the agreement will not affect each other’s positions in the South China Sea,” the Philippine Foreign Ministry confirmed. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also insisted that the US would “do what is necessary” to ensure the Philippines can continue to supply the Sierra Madre.
“The Chinese side continues to demand that the Philippines tow the ship and restore it (Second Thomas Shoal) to its original state as if it were unmanned and without facilities,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry also confirmed after the talks. “If the Philippines needs to provide supplies to the ship’s occupants before towing the stranded warship, the Chinese side is willing to allow the Philippine side to transport and supply them for humanitarian reasons.” However, if a large amount of construction materials are transported to the ship to build fixed facilities and permanent outposts, “China will never accept this and will resolutely block it in accordance with laws and regulations to protect China’s sovereignty.”
It is also important to stress that the unresolved territorial issues in the South China Sea involving China represent only a small fraction of all the legal disputes that exist in the region today. In fact, the Philippines recently informed the United Nations (UN) that it wants to expand its continental shelf by submitting a claim to claim the western Palawan region of the South China Sea – an area rich in oil and gas – which would in turn extend into the Malaysian state of Sabah in northern Borneo.
“Malaysia is an independent, sovereign state that will fight any claim on our territory,” Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said in response to Manila’s diplomatic note to the United Nations. “In this note, the Philippines claims that its maritime border runs through Sabah. If this is used as a yardstick, then they are claiming that Sabah belongs to the Philippines. We are an independent and sovereign state and no one can just come and lay claim to any of our territories.”
With many of these disputes still unresolved, using the Second Thomas Reef as a pretext to send more warships to Asia unnecessarily drags the Philippines – a country that has developed peacefully for decades – into a potentially irreversible quagmire. “I feel sorry for my country. I am no longer president. I cannot run. But if there is a way to reverse the situation, maybe we can find a way to implode somewhere inside. And if God allows, then maybe I could reverse the situation. I would remove the bases,” Duterte lamented. “And I would tell the Americans, you have so many ships that you don’t need my island as a launching pad or a launch deck for you.”
