Welcome to the first year of 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our projected playoff participants as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP Selection Committee’s rankings will advance to the playoffs, and the rest of the field will be filled by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on January 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: No. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 5 Alabama, No. 4 Texas
No. 3 Oregon
Record 2023: 12-2, 8-1 Pac-12
Last season in 100 words or less
The Ducks beat every team on the schedule that wasn’t Washington. OK, let’s look at this in a little more detail. Oregon ruined Colorado’s good mood with a 42-6 loss in Week 4, then crushed Stanford by the same score before losing 36-33 in Seattle.
The Ducks rebounded with wins by at least two points the rest of the season and met the Huskies again in the final Pac-12 title game. Washington again beat Oregon, and that game was decided by a field goal. The Huskies made it to the College Football Playoffs with a 34-31 win, while Oregon got a chance to overtake Liberty 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl.
Why Oregon can make the playoffs
How do you replace a quarterback who set the NCAA record for best finished season? You go out and get the best quarterback in the transfer portal.
Former Oklahoma and UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel is coming to Eugene for his final season of college football, succeeding Bo Nix after completing over 77% of his passes in 2023. Gabriel is the favorite for the Heisman Trophy and should fit well into Oregon’s scheme, although we wouldn’t be surprised if it’s tweaked a bit to allow for more passes down the field.
Leading wide receiver Troy Franklin is gone, but the team’s top five receivers behind him are all back in 2024. That includes Tez Johnson after he had 86 catches for 1,182 yards and 10 TDs. Former Alabama wide receiver Traeshon Holden could be in line for a bigger role after he had 37 catches for 452 yards. And watch for former five-star recruit Evan Stewart. The former Texas A&M wide receiver recorded 91 catches for 1,163 yards and six TDs in 18 games in College Station.
The offensive line will have to replace center Jackson Powers-Johnson, but returns three starters and newcomer guard Matthew Bedford from Indiana. It will be one of the better units in the country if Jordan James takes over as the top running back. He averaged over seven yards per run on 107 attempts in 2023.
The key to success on defense is a revamped secondary that needs to be up and running right away. Oregon signed former Washington DB Jabbar Muhammad, former UTSA DB Kameryn Alexander, former Kansas State DB Kobe Savage and former Alabama DB Peyton Woodyard through the transfer portal. All four players will play important roles right away, alongside former Duke nickelback Brandon Johnson.
After recording just 18 sacks in 2022, Oregon recorded 34 in 2023. Evan Williams and Brandon Dorlus are gone, but Jordan Burch is back for another season and the line also added Derrick Harmon (Michigan State) and Jamaree Caldwell (Houston) through the portal.
The new additions in the transfer portal also include special teams. The Ducks have signed Atticus Sappington from Oregon State. He has made 18 of 21 field goals in the last two seasons and has only missed two extra points in his career.
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Key players
Oregon couldn’t have done better in its efforts to replace Nix. The Ducks have Gabriel for his final season of college football and can then move on to former UCLA QB Dante Moore in 2025 after he also joined them in the offseason.
Gabriel’s adjustment to offensive coordinator Will Stein’s offense will determine whether Oregon will be as good as it was last season. Nix has otherworldly stats with his ability to read the field and Stein’s ability to get receivers free immediately.
However, Gabriel’s completion rate in 2023 was also good. Gabriel has completed over 69% of his passes and is 60% over the past four seasons. It’s almost impossible to ask him to try and match Nix’s performance in 2023, but Oregon should have a fantastic season if he comes close.
Biggest game
The COVID-19 pandemic cost us the opportunity for a home-and-away non-conference game between the Buckeyes and Ducks. After Ohio State was supposed to be in Eugene in 2020, Oregon went to Columbus in 2021 and won 35-28.
Now it’s time for OSU to travel west, and the game could be a preview of the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes are entering a national title-or-bust season, while Oregon looks to be the second-best team in the conference. We can’t wait.
