Maryland’s Republican Senate candidate Larry Hogan is tied with his Democratic rival, according to a new poll, giving Republicans hope of a surprise victory while the other Republican candidates struggle in the crucial races for a place in the upper house.
According to a surprise AARP poll, Hogan was tied with Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks at 46% each, with the remaining 8% of respondents undecided.
“I’ve made it clear from the beginning that we are the underdogs in this race,” Hogan said in a statement about the poll. “People have always viewed us as underdogs – and in this deep blue state, in this unprecedented and chaotic time in American politics, this uphill battle is a formidable challenge.”
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris defeated former President Donald Trump by a whopping 59% to 29%, according to a Maryland poll.
The Old Line State has not had a Republican in the Senate since 1987, and President Biden won the state by about 33 percentage points in 2020. Only one of the eight congressmen is a Republican – Representative Andy Harris (R-Md.).
Despite Maryland’s liberal leanings, Hogan is widely viewed as a highly serious Republican candidate due to his more moderate stance, family heritage, and track record as governor throughout the state.
In 2018, when Democrats won elections nationwide, Hogan won re-election as governor of Maryland by nearly 12 percentage points.
Both Hogan and Alsobrooks are vying to fill the soon-to-be-vacated seat of incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Cardin for Maryland. Alsobrooks defeated Representative David Trone in a tough primary in May.
If she wins, Alsobrooks would be the first black senator from Maryland and only the second senator from that state after Barbara Mikulski.
The Republicans face favorable conditions for retaking the upper house, as they only have to defend eleven seats, while the Democrats hold 23 seats and are caucused by three independents.
But polls show it will be neck-and-neck in all areas. Some of the toughest races feature Democratic incumbents, making it even harder to win those seats.
The GOP is also eyeing elections in Arizona, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin as possible catch-up drives.
The Cook Political Report rates Michigan, Montana and Ohio as undecided, while West Virginia is considered a solid Republican state for the Senate elections. Maryland is rated by the election expert as “likely Democratic.”
The Democrats currently control the Senate by 51 votes to 49. Whoever wins the vice presidency will have the deciding vote in the event of a tie.
During his tenure as governor, Hogan gained a reputation for his centrist stance and became one of Trump’s loudest critics within his party, who largely kept a low profile during the election campaign.
Hogan has taken a pro-abortion stance during his Senate campaign, and in his first ad he called for a federal codification of abortion law as Republicans grapple with the political difficulties of this albatross issue.
He also tried to portray himself as an outsider and stressed that Republicans should not take his vote in the Senate for granted if he won.
The nonpartisan AARP poll was conducted August 14-20 and surveyed 1,258 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The survey was conducted by the Republican-leaning firm Fabrizio Ward and the Democratic-leaning firm Impact Research.
