JERUSALEM (AP) — International mediators hope to restart stalled cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks that could finally lead to an agreement between the sides, but the chances of a breakthrough appear slim.
The new talks are due to begin on Thursday, but Israel and Hamas have been considering an internationally supported proposal for more than two months that the ten-month war and release the approximately 110 hostages still being held in Gaza.
The indirect talks have not made any significant progress during this time and sticking points remain. New conditions have made progress more difficult. And Hamas has not yet made a clear statement on whether it will participate in the new round.
In the meantime The fighting in Gaza continuesThe Hostages continue to languish in captivityand fears of a full-scale regional war between Iran and one of its regional proxies, Hezbollah, have increased. Killing of the top Hamas leader The unrest in Tehran over a suspected Israeli attack plunged the talks into further uncertainty.
Here’s a look at the proposed ceasefire and the reasons why talks have stalled:
What is the proposal?
On May 31 US President Joe Biden in detail He described it as an Israeli ceasefire proposal and called it “a roadmap” for a permanent ceasefire and the release of the hostages. It was the beginning the most concentrated US advance to end the war that was triggered by The Hamas attacks of October 7 in the south of Israel.
The original proposal envisaged three phases. The first would last six weeks and include a “complete ceasefire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza, and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Palestinian civilians would be allowed to return to their homes and humanitarian aid would be increased.
The two sides would use this six-week period to negotiate a second-phase agreement, which Biden said would include the release of all surviving hostages, including male soldiers, and Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary ceasefire would become permanent.
The third phase would initiate a comprehensive reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, which faces decades of reconstruction after the destruction caused by the war.
Where are the sticking points?
Although Biden strongly supported the proposal, it did not lead to a breakthrough, and the conflicts between the two sides appear to have diverged even further in the weeks that followed.
Israel is skeptical about the plan’s provision that the initial ceasefire should be extended while negotiations on the second phase continue. Israel appears to be concerned that Hamas could drag out the negotiations indefinitely without achieving results.
Hamas appears to be concerned that Israel could resume the war once the most vulnerable hostages are returned, a scenario that is also reflected in some statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Latest commentsDuring this phase of negotiations, Israel could also make demands that were not part of the original agreement and would be unacceptable to Hamas – and then resume the war if Hamas rejects these demands.
Israel has added more demands to the original proposal in recent weeks, according to two Egyptian officials familiar with the talks. In a statement on Tuesday, Netanyahu’s office denied this, calling the additional conditions “essential clarifications.” It said Hamas had made 29 additions, but did not specify what they were.
Egyptian officials said Israel was trying to gain control of a strip of land along the border with the Gaza Strip with Egypt as the Philadelphia Corridor. Israel believes Hamas uses the area to smuggle weapons through underground tunnels, which Egypt denies.
Israel also wants to station troops along an east-west route that cuts through Gaza to eliminate any militants who enter the north of the territory. Netanyahu’s office has said Israel wants to ensure this in some way, but rejected allegations that it is an additional condition. Hamas has rejected the idea, saying Israel would use it as a pretext to prevent Palestinians from returning to their homeland.
The Egyptian officials and Netanyahu’s office said Israel also wanted veto power over the Palestinian prisoners who would be released. Hamas refuses to compromise on the issue, they said.
Israel is also demanding a list of the hostages still alive – another condition that Hamas has refused, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media about the sensitive talks.
What else makes progress difficult?
The talks were further disrupted last month when an explosion killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran for the Iranian president’s inauguration. The attack was widely attributed to Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied it. Biden said the apparent assassination “did not help” ceasefire efforts and talks were on hold.
The murder happened just hours after Israel assassinated a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in an attack in Beirut. Both attacks triggered threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah and fears of a full-scale regional war. drew international attention from efforts to end the fighting in Gaza. The killings triggered a flurry of diplomatic activity and prompted the US to direct military resources to the region.
Both Netanyahu and the new Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, have an incentive to continue the war.
Critics of Netanyahu say he is only prolonging the war for political reasons. His far-right coalition partners have said they will overthrow the government if he agrees to a ceasefire. This could trigger new elections that could force him out of office. Netanyahu has said he has the country’s best interests in mind.
Hamas has benefited from the international condemnation Israel has received for the war. And on a personal level, Haniyeh’s assassination has shown that Sinwar’s own life could be at stake if he re-emerges after the war is over.
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Magdy reported from Cairo.
