BIRDBYTES
Quick read before the game!
Bernie Bits style!
1. Heading into Tuesday’s game against the Padres, the Cardinals have a 22-26 record since the start of July. And while St. Louis’ offense usually takes most of the blame for the lack of success, we shouldn’t overlook the painful decline in starting pitching.
2. Since July 1, the Cardinals rank 26th out of 30 major league teams with a 5.10 ERA. They have been more respectable in the first three months, ranking 17th with a 4.18 ERA. The rotation was neither dominant nor elite, but after the rotation collapse and chaos of last season, stability was essential. And for three months, the Cardinals’ starters were reliable — at least by modern standards.
3. The saddest part of this development is that the three free agent starters that John Mozeliak signed last offseason – Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn – have combined for a 5.94 ERA in 23 starts since the beginning of July.
4. Here is a detailed breakdown of the disappointing performances…
- Gray: 5.83 ERA in 9 starts
- Gibson: 5.94 ERA in 10 starts
- Lynn: 6.27 ERA in 4 starts
In addition to the elevated earned run averages, Lynn was placed on the IL to rest his sore right knee. The other problem with the trio of older guys is their vulnerability to preventing home runs.
5. Over the last two months, three-hitters have been hit for 27 home runs, hitting a rate of nearly two home runs (1.93) per nine innings. Thirteen of the 27 deep hits have come against the disappointing Gray.
6. If we add the work of another oldie into the group, the situation is still grim. Of course, I’m referring to Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.93 ERA in nine starts since the beginning of July. And Mikolas has given up seven home runs in 49 and ⅓ innings.
7. Gray, Gibson, Lynn and Mikolas have been used for 110 earned runs in 175 innings and 32 starts since July 1, for a combined ERA of 5.65. Wow.
8. Cards fans: These were your four best starters at the beginning of the season. The team hasn’t held up particularly well.
9. The only thumbs up goes to Andre Pallante and his 3.33 ERA in eight starts during the same stretch that left the older starters gasping for air. (Metaphorically speaking, of course.) Newcomer Erick Fedde has been OK since being traded to the Cardinals. But the 4.23 ERA is a little misleading, and Fedde has given up five home runs in 27 and ⅔ innings.
10. In the 32 starts of Gray, Gibson, Lynn and Mikolas since the beginning of July, the Cardinals have a record of 16-16. That surprised me, given their rapid ERA inflation and inflated home run totals against them. But I looked closer and now I know why the record in their starts is .500 and not much worse. In the 16 STL starts that the quartet won, the Cardinals averaged 6.3 runs per game. Run support is fantastic when you can get it.
One more note: Based on their minus-59 run differential, the Cardinals should have had a 59-72 record going into Monday. In 131 games last season, the Cards had an actual record of 56-75. While the 2024 Cardinals won’t finish with the 71-91 record that the 2023 Cardinals posted, they are similar teams.
That’s all.
Thanks for reading…
–Bernie
Bernie Miklasz
For the past 36 years, Bernie Miklasz has entertained, educated and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
Bernie is best known for his 26 years as lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch, but has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington DC.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats live in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood in St. Louis.
