THE REDBIRD REVIEW
The Cardinals lost again on Monday, going into automatic mode to take a 6-1 loss to the Reds in Cincinnati. It was a bad loss. It was also the new normal. At this point, no one should be surprised if the Cardinals get squashed in a game.
I know my Bruce Springsteen references can be annoying (sorry), but when I think about the path the Cardinals have taken, I hear a song in my head. It’s actually one of my favorites.
Train heading downhill.
To quote the song: “Don’t you feel like a driver on a train going down?”
Current trend: 12-17 record since July 10 with a winning percentage of .414, which ranks 26th overall and 13th in the National League. St. Louis’ run differential in those 29 games is minus-20.
Attack: During the 12-17 freeze, the Cardinal offense has scored four or fewer runs 18 times. And their record in the 18 low-scoring games is 3-15.
Total pitch: Since July 10, the Cardinals have an ERA of 4.88, which ranks them 22nd overall. During the team’s 33-18 winning streak that began on May 12, the ERA of 3.67 was fifth-best in the major leagues.
Starting pitcher: During the 33-18 run, the Cardinals’ starters posted a 4.20 ERA, which was about league average. But in this 12-17 downturn, their starter ERA ranks 23rd at an abysmal 4.98.
The bullpen: Through July 10, the St. Louis relievers ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.40 ERA and allowed only 26.2 percent of runners on base to score, the seventh-best rate in the majors. However, as the Cardinals have stumbled and lost 17 of their last 29 games, their bullpen ERA of 4.72 ranks 21st and their percentage of baserunners scoring (33.3%) ranks 26th.
The defense: The Reds stole 3 of 3 bases on Monday, and this team’s appalling inability to stop the opponent’s running game is an embarrassment. The Cardinals have surrendered the most bases (113) in the major leagues this season. And their catcher caught stealing rate of 14 percent ranks 29th among 30 teams. The Redbirds have otherwise fielded well this season, improving to seventh in the major leagues with 33 defensive runs saved. But why is this team so helpless at stopping runners from stealing bases? The blame is placed on the catchers, but too many people seem to forget that pitchers play a role in allowing runners to get easy steals. All I know is this: The problem is extreme and not getting better. The Cardinals have not done a thing to slow down their opponents.
OK, now pick something from the deck that tells you the Cardinals are about to take off. Their offense is being stopped too often and too easily. Their struggle to score runners in scoring position is an abomination. Opponents are running madly for the bases, undeterred by the prospect of sacks.
The quality of the starting pitchers has dropped, and a proud but worn-out bullpen is easier to beat. In Monday’s lopsided loss, frustrated manager Oli Marmol was ejected for the fourth time this season – he yelled about the strike zone – but the theatrics failed to motivate the team.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 60-59 this season and 4-7 in August. According to Fangraphs projections, the Redbirds have a 4.6 percent chance of winning the NL Central and a 6.6 percent chance of securing a wild-card spot. STL’s overall probability of making the playoffs is 11.2 percent; eight NL teams have better odds.
WAITING FOR A SONNY GRAY: OK, there was another reference to the Springsteen song title – a pun if you will – and I couldn’t resist. But we’re waiting for Sonny Gray to live up to his reputation as the No. 1 starter. The Reds have given Gray three home runs and six earned runs in five innings. He’s allowed five earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts and has a 5.86 ERA in those seven games. I’ll have more on Gray in my second column of the day – which will be out in about an hour.
Failure to appear offense: The Cardinals had several chances to break through left-handed Reds starter Andrew Abbott, including opportunities with the bases loaded in the second and third innings. Still, they only managed one run on an RBI single by Nolan Arenado in the third inning. And here’s the saddest statistic: After Paul Goldschmidt’s two-out infield single in the third inning, the Cardinals went 1 for 21 in the final six innings of their loss.
Cardinals batters struck out nine times in the game. The Cards were 2 of 7 with men on base and 0 of 2 with the bases loaded. The Cardinals have the worst batting average of any NL team (.173) with the bases loaded this season.
ALLERGIC REACTION TO LEFT RAILS: Andrew Abbott had no trouble getting out of some tough situations, allowing one run in 6 and ⅔ innings. This season, left-handers have allowed a 3.84 ERA and a .679 OPS against St. Louis.
Marmol had seven right-handers in his starting lineup. They batted 5 for 20 (.250) with two walks against the left-handed Abbott, but with little damage. Four of the five hits were singles, and Paul Goldschmidt had a double. The three best hitters in the lineup were all right-handers – Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras and Tommy Pham. But together they batted 1 for 11 with four strikeouts.
This season, STL’s right-handers rank no higher than 20th in the majors’ respective batting categories when facing left-handers. Their worst stats are a slugging percentage of .388 (24th), 21 home runs (24th) and an OPS of .700 (24th).
BIRDBYTES
1) The Reds (58-61) are two games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.
2) The Cardinals have a 17-20 record against NL Central rivals this season, but things have not been going so well lately: The Cardinals have lost six of their last eight division games and are 4-8 against NL Central rivals since the last series before the All-Star break.
3) The Cards are 29-32 away.
4) The first-place Brewers have a stronger lineup than the Cardinals. That’s a truism. But since their best hitter, Christian Yelich, went on the IL on July 24, the Crew has averaged 5.2 runs per game, hit 23 home runs, had a .269 batting average, reached base 34 percent of the time and had a .442 slugging average. Milwaukee has a 9-8 record since Yelich’s absence. The Cardinals have a 7-11 record since Yelich’s absence. And in that time, the Cards’ offensive numbers have been weaker than Milwaukee’s.
5) Nolan Arenado continues to hit, and I appreciate that. He leads the Cardinals with a .341 batting average in August, which has raised his batting average to .271 this season.
6) But Arenado remains at 11 home runs this season. He hasn’t hit a home run in his last 15 games. This season, 99 big league hitters have hit more home runs than Arenado. And 105 batters have posted a higher slugging percentage than Arenado’s .388. Arenado’s slug percentage over the last 15 games is .357. Since the beginning of July, Arenado has hit just four home runs.
7) Since becoming a Cardinal in 2021, Arenado has hit six or more home runs in seven different months and has hit at least five home runs in a month four times. This season, his best home run total for a month so far is four, which he accomplished in May and July.
8) Tommy Pham has cooled off after shooting 1-of-14 in his last four games.
9) I look forward to seeing how Erick Fedde fares tonight in his start at Great American Small Park.
10) JJ Wetherholt, the seventh pick in this year’s MLB draft, has a .452 onbase percentage and a .433 slug in his first 10 games for the Cardinals’ Class A affiliate in Palm Beach. In his last two games, Wetherholt has three hits, two walks and five RBIs. How soon can he get to St. Louis? OK, I’m just kidding…I guess.
Thanks for reading…
–Bernie
Bernie, who will be inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023, has been offering informed opinions and perspectives on St. Louis sports in his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running and will try to keep episodes to 10-14 minutes.
Please subscribe – thank you! – and here is the link:
@TheBernieShow
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and threads @miklaszb
For weekly map talks, listen to the Seeing Red podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Statistics used in my baseball columns come from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net and Sports Info Solutions, unless otherwise noted.
Bernie Miklasz
For the past 36 years, Bernie Miklasz has entertained, educated and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
Bernie is best known for his 26 years as lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch, but has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington DC.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats live in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood in St. Louis.
