THE REDBIRD REVIEW
Greetings! As you know by now, the Cardinals won their three-game series against Milwaukee. I give this relatively minor accomplishment a thumbs up, especially since the Redbirds lost the opener and had to give the Brewers two games in a row.
Task completed. Now what? Thanks for the question. I’d like to address three points as we begin the latest review…
1. If you want to know if winning this series changes my opinion about the Cardinals’ viability as a postseason contender, the answer is a resounding “no.” They are five games out of wild-card berth, have four teams ahead of them, and have 35 games left in the regular season schedule.
After September 4th, the schedule will be thinner, but look at the teams they’ll be playing between now and then: 13 games total against Minnesota, San Diego, the NY Yankees and Milwaukee. The Yankees and Brewers lead their divisions, and the Padres and Twins currently have wild card tickets. The four teams have a combined winning percentage of .569 and are a combined 71 games over .500.
Of the next 13 games, only four (against the Padres) will be played at Busch Stadium. And when the Cardinals come to the Twin Cities this weekend, they have a 29-34 road record.
For the Cardinals to have a real chance of qualifying for the postseason, they can’t get knocked down in their next 13 games, so there’s no reason to judge their performance after September 4th before we know how they perform before September 4th.
2. In order for the Cardinals to emerge from an underdog position as a bold challenger, their pitching team must must contain a number of lively attacks. Among the 30 MLB teams, the Yankees (2nd), Twins (6th), Padres (10th) and Brewers (11th) are comfortably above the league average in runs scored per game. The Redbird pitchers did an admirable job of silencing the Milwaukee offense at Busch Stadium this week. But this can’t be an isolated incident. Going forward, St. Louis pitchers will have to be tough to prevent runs.
3. The Cardinals will need a lightning offensive to win the next 13 games and then some. Their hitters can’t dawdle. There’s no time for that. But does anyone really expect an all-out attack from the Cardinals offense in a matchup with four pitchers who are better than league average at limiting runs? That’s why St. Louis’ pitchers must deliver. To be successful, the Cardinals need to win a good number of low-scoring games. In their only loss to the Brewers, the Cardinals allowed three runs. The game was within reach. And in the final game of the Milwaukee series, Miles Mikolas and three relievers combined to deliver a 3-0 victory. If the pitching collapses over the next 13 contests, the Cardinals will likely be in serious trouble.
For the Cardinals to have a chance to narrow the gap in the wild-card race, their pitchers will need to play consistently at a high level for the rest of the game. St. Louis’ offense is too weak to rely on that, and the dangerously narrow path to the playoffs and real opportunity can only be kept open by good performance from their pitchers. That’s a lot to ask, let alone expect. Before the Brewers came to town, the Cardinals’ pitchers ranked 23rd in the majors with a 5.10 ERA in August. They improved and won the series, but can’t let up.
Let’s continue…
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Thursday’s win over the Brewers gave the Cardinals a 3-1 record in their last four home series, with wins over Texas, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee and a loss to the LA Dodgers. The Cardinals also lost a game to the Mets, who were in town to play a make-up game left over from a rain-related cancellation in May.
The Cardinals are 7-12 (.368) in August and have averaged just 3.6 runs per game for the month…Even with the nice series win over the Brewers, the Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games…the Redbirds are 10-16 (.385) since July 24 and 15-22 (.405) in their last 37 games.
POST-SEASON PICTURE, STILL CLOUDY: The fact that the Brewers won two of three hasn’t helped STL’s playoff chances much. As of Friday morning, FanGraphs gave the Cardinals a 0.6 percent chance of winning the NL Central, a 2.9 percent chance of securing a wild-card spot and a 3.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. Eight NL teams have a better chance of qualifying for the postseason than St. Louis.
MANDATORY TABLE CHECK: The second-place Cardinals are still 10 games behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. The Cards are five games out of the third wild-card spot currently held by the Braves. But even in the wild-card hunt, the Redbirds are 3 ½ games behind the Mets and one game behind the Giants. Back to the NL Central, the Cardinals are half a game ahead of the third-place Cubs, 1 ½ games ahead of the enigmatic Reds and three games ahead of the last-place Pirates.
NOLAN ARENADO, A GO-GO: In the Milwaukee series, STL’s third baseman batted 5 for 13 (.385), hitting the Brewers with two doubles, a grand slam and five RBIs. Arenado gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead with an RBI single in the bottom of the seventh inning, raising STL’s win probability to 94 percent. Arenado is coming off his best month of the season, leading the Cardinals in batting average (.315), onbase percentage (.367), slugging (.507), OPS (.874) and RBIs (15) in August. No other Cardinal has scored more than eight runs this month.
MASYN WINN: I just wanted to mention that he went 6-of-15 (.400) against Milwaukee. The rookie’s wRC+ for August is 23 percent above the league average offensively, second only to Arenado on the team this month.
TIP FOR THE OL BALL CAP: As I mentioned earlier, St. Louis’ pitchmen did a great job of containing Milwaukee’s prolific offense. The Brewers scored six runs in Game 2 (and lost), but managed three runs in Game 1 and didn’t concede a score in the series finale.
Despite the six runs in the middle game, the Cardinals’ pitchers had a 2.89 ERA in 28 innings and did not allow a single home run in the entire game. The Brewers had just six extra-base hits in 114 plate appearances during the series.
In their first seven games against St. Louis this season, the Brewers finished 6-1, averaged six runs per game, had a .435 slugging average and an OPS of .780.
In the three games at Busch this week, the Crew averaged 3 runs and had a modest .306 slug and .631 OPS.
Cards starters Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas combined for a 2.12 ERA in the three games. There was some turmoil in St. Louis’ bullpen, with a terrible 17.4 percent walk rate in the series, resulting in a 4.09 ERA.
Excuse the nitpick, but the starting pitchers didn’t strike out many Brewer hitters (just 14.7%) and allowed too many walks (10.3%). The relievers and starters had to work their way out of trouble – and for the most part, they did. But the underlying vulnerability can be dangerous.
There were other positives to this series win. Closer Ryan Helsley had a win and a save, holding the Brewers in check in both of St. Louis’ victories. Hels Bells leads the majors with 39 saves and has not been penalized for a run in his last five appearances.
In Wednesday’s rollercoaster 10-6 victory, the Cards’ relievers recovered from setbacks to hold the Brewers scoreless over the final 2 1/2 innings. On Thursday, the relievers followed up with three blank innings to complete a shutout started by Mikolas. In the series-deciding game, Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero and Helsley squashed any real chance of a Milwaukee comeback.
NOTES ON MR MIKOLAS: His variety of pitches kept the Brewers on the ground on Thursday. The right-hander’s 12 groundball outs were achieved with the slider (5), the four-seam fastball (4), the sinker (2) and the curve (1).
Mikolas allowed two hits and a walk in six innings. After the Brewers had a double and a single with one out in the first inning, they had no luck against Mikolas. He retired 16 of the last 17 hitters he faced, with the only runner entering the game for the first time on a walk. Mikolas started with a 5.41 ERA and finished with a 5.19 ERA.
Next on the agenda: There will be right-handers galore in Minneapolis this weekend. All six scheduled starters are right-handed. All times listed are STL times.
Friday, 7.10 p.m.: Andre Pallante against David Festa (4.69 ERA).
Saturday, 6.10 p.m.: Sonny Gray vs. Pablo Lopez (4.47 ERA).
Sunday, 1:10 p.m.: Erick Fedde against Zebby Matthews (3.60 ERA).
I’ll get back to you later with more.
Thanks for reading…
–Bernie
Bernie, who will be inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023, has been offering informed opinions and perspectives on St. Louis sports in his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thanks for subscribing. Here is the link:
@TheBernieShow
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and threads @miklaszb
For weekly map talks, listen to the Seeing Red podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We’ll be recording a new podcast on Monday mornings.
Statistics used in my baseball columns come from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net and Sports Info Solutions, unless otherwise noted.
Bernie Miklasz
For the past 36 years, Bernie Miklasz has entertained, educated and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
Bernie is best known for his 26 years as lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch, but has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington DC.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats live in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood in St. Louis.
