BOJ summary – a member of the monetary policy committee said the neutral interest rate was at least 1%

Summary of the Bank of Japan’s views at the monetary policy meeting on 30 and 31 July

• Several members expect that the development of economic activity and prices will be in line with the BOJ’s forecast
• Some see scope for an increase in the “significantly low” key interest rate and point to negative real interest rates at a 25-year low
• Opinions differ on the timing: some want more data, others are ready immediately
• Agreement on the need for a step-by-step approach to avoid rapid interest rate increases
• Members aim for a neutral interest rate of “at least around 1%” in the medium term
• Plans to reduce JGB purchases are seen as promoting market function, not as tightening
• Careful monitoring of the JGB market required as the BOJ reduces its purchases
• Government officials stress the need for clear communication of political changes
• Ongoing debate on the sustainability of the inflation/wage growth cycle

Opinions suggest that the BOJ is laying the groundwork for further policy normalization, but there remains disagreement over the exact timing and pace.

Of course that was all then, this is now:

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Full text:

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I posted this information earlier, but in case you missed it:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) publishes a “Summary of Views” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussions and views of the members of the monetary policy board on various economic and financial topics.

Key points to summarize:

• The summary contains the views of the members of the Policy Board on the economic situation at home and abroad. These include assessments of economic growth, inflation and employment trends.
• The summary also outlines the views of Policy Board members on the effectiveness of the BOJ’s current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases and yield curve control. Members can discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these measures and their potential impact on the economy.
• The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members can express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
• The summary also includes any dissenting views of the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority opinion on a particular point, he or she may express his or her own opinion and justification.

In a few weeks we will receive the minutes of this meeting. The minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.

• The minutes provide a more comprehensive record of the views expressed, including any dissenting opinions or alternative views that may not be included in the summary.
• The summary of statements is usually published a few days after the meeting, while the minutes are published about a month later. This means that the summary of statements can provide more timely information on the BOJ’s current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
• The summary of statements is usually written in more accessible language, making the BOJ’s views on monetary policy easier to understand.
• The protocols, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
• The summary of the opinions is normally shorter than the minutes.