After losing their first two games in Cleveland by one point each to eke out an easy win over the Guardians, the Cubs have now won the first two games of this series against the Blue Jays by the narrowest of margins possible. They did it in very different ways: They built a big lead before barely surviving a bullpen implosion, eking out three points and prevailing thanks to the performances of six different relievers.
Now they have a chance to tie the game in the final six games and potentially secure sole possession of second place in the division. And depending on what happens to the other teams ahead of them in the Wild Card, the Cubs could dramatically increase their playoff hopes. We really shouldn’t be calling this team a postseason contender anymore, but here we are.
This team’s pendulum has swung wildly back and forth all season, but what if the Cubs actually carry that momentum for a longer period? That’s probably too much to ask, even with Shota Imanaga on the mound with a chance to close out the series. He’ll have to be better than he was last time in Cleveland, when he allowed seven runs (three earned) on seven hits. A lot of people want to blame it on a bad call by the home plate umpire, but an ace has to be able to overcome those obstacles.
The lineup has remained more or less the same for some time, with Ian Happ as leadoff in left and Michael Busch at first base. Seiya Suzuki actually seems to remain the primary DH at this point, with Cody Bellinger in right, then Isaac Paredes follows at third, Nico Hoerner at second, and Dansby Swanson at shortstop. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center and Miguel Amaya is the catcher.
They’re going up against 28-year-old Bowden “Lighten Up” Francis, who I’ve honestly never heard of. That’s crazy, right? Seriously, I come to this analysis knowing nothing about him, which is crazy because he debuted in 2022 and has 41 major league appearances. Maybe it’s because he was used primarily as a reliever and only started sporadically.
Despite only starting six times in 20 total appearances, Francis should be able to play at full capacity and play depth if needed. He threw seven one-hit innings against the Angels to pick up the win in his last appearance, and even picked up a win and no decision in his two previous appearances, both against the Orioles. Whatever you may think given his 4.92 ERA and 5.08 FIP, this guy was mostly legit.
If you ignore his first two starts of the season, in which he allowed 12 earned runs in 8.1 innings, Francis has a 3.54 ERA. His strikeouts have also been up recently, with 15 in 12 innings in his last two starts. That may be a bit of luck, though, as his FIP is one run higher in this sample of 18 appearances and Francis is a strike-thrower who isn’t good enough to consistently strike out batters. Here I’ll add the caveat that this Cubs team is uniquely capable of making mediocre pitchers look great on any given day.
Francis throws his 94 mph four-seam about 53% of the time and usually ends up at the top of the zone, but runs into trouble when he leaves it in the middle. That will be key to his afternoon, as his curveball and slider have both been pretty bad so far. The slow hook stays above the bottom of the zone and is flagged, while the slider’s heat map shows a bright red spot just below the heart of the zone.
There’s also a splitter that’s used about 15% of the time and can be effective when he’s mastered it, which isn’t all that often. With all of his secondary hitters moving glove-side, Francis throws to reverse splits that right-handed batters fare much better at in almost every way. Those numbers even out on the road, though, so maybe he won’t fall victim at Wrigley.
This is a big game for the Cubs, who have Monday off before welcoming the Tigers to town. First pitch is at 1:20 p.m. CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
Here is today’s #Boy Starting lineup for Harry Potter Day at Wrigley Field!
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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) 18 August 2024
