Among the major metropolises, Chicago recorded the third largest loss of … (+)
Migration trends and population growth rates for U.S. cities and states are instructive because they indicate the relative success of competing governance models and conflicting ideologies. Looking at the major metropolitan areas that have experienced the largest population gains and losses since 2020, it seems there are policy lessons to be learned from the commonalities between the winners and losers.
Using data from the Census Bureau, the Brookings Institution released the following graphic in July, showing the five largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. that have seen the largest population increases since 2020: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Austin. The five cities with the largest population declines over the same period are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, and San Jose.
Large metropolitan areas with the largest population increases and losses from 2020 to 2023
The top 10 metropolitan areas with the largest population gains and losses differ in notable ways. First, the top five metropolitan areas with the largest population gains are all in Right-to-Work states. Of the top five metropolitan areas with the largest population declines, none are in a Right-to-Work state.
Right-to-work laws, which have been around for more than 80 years, have established that workers cannot be forced to join a union as a condition of hiring. Kamala Harris has made clear that one of her top priorities as president, should she win election in November, will be passing the PRO Act, which would override all state right-to-work laws at the federal level.
By repealing all state right-to-work laws in Washington, DC, passage of the PRO Act would roll back a worker protection measure that has been in place for more than three-quarters of a century and has even been expanded in recent years. Over the past decade, the number of right-to-work states, currently at 26, has grown by more than 18%.
Americans are choosing cities with significantly lower income tax rates and a lower overall tax burden
The cities that gain the most residents also have, on average, much lower state income tax rates than the metropolitan areas that lose the most residents. The average highest marginal state tax rate in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Austin is 1.59%. The average highest marginal state tax rate in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, and San Jose is 11.15%.
While the cities gaining the most residents are in states that, on average, impose much lower income tax rates, they also impose a lower overall tax burden. The average state and local tax burden of the five cities with the highest population gains since 2020 is 8.84% of income, while the average tax burden in the five cities that lost the most residents is 13.86%.
Finally, there is a political trend here that is hard to miss. The cities that have gained the most population in recent years are all in states where Republicans have complete control of the state government. In contrast, the metropolitan areas that have experienced the greatest population decline are all in states that are completely governed by Democrats.
The media has reported that the 2024 presidential election is a “vote of sentiment” and that policy proposals and outcomes will not be decisive. Yet migration trends continue to suggest otherwise. They suggest that not only do politics still matter to U.S. citizens, but that Americans appear to be voting for and against certain policies with their feet.
