Vice President Kamala Harris continues to gain ground in polls over former President Donald Trump, leading some experts to speculate Newsweek that the Democratic candidate could achieve a surprise victory in the more conservative state of Florida.
Until relatively recently, Florida was considered a hotly contested swing state in presidential elections for both major parties, but it has moved to the right in recent election cycles. Former President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win a presidential election, narrowly winning the state in both 2008 and 2012.
However, Trump has won in his adopted home state by increasing his lead in each of the last two elections – in 2016 he defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by just over one percent and in 2020 President Joe Biden by over three percent. Since then, the state seems to have swung even more toward the Republicans.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats performed better in many other parts of the country than polls suggested. Republicans in Florida won by a wide margin, with Governor Ron DeSantis winning re-election by nearly 20 percentage points.
Polls in Florida are getting tighter
Before Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 and endorsed Harris as the Democratic frontrunner, polls in Florida suggested Republicans were likely to continue their streak of relatively comfortable victories in the Sunshine State in November.
While polls conducted since Harris entered the race still put Trump in the lead, some recent surveys suggest she may be closing in on that lead, in part because she holds a significant lead over Trump among women and black voters.
A USA TODAYA /Suffolk/WSVN-TV poll conducted between August 7 and 11 and released last week found Trump leading Harris by 5 percentage points in Florida, just outside the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percent.
A poll conducted on August 10 and 11 by the PolCom Lab at Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research USA brought even more encouraging news for Harris. It showed the vice president trailing Trump by three percentage points in a head-to-head comparison.
When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. entered the race as an option, Harris cut Trump’s lead to just two percentage points. The poll did not include a margin of error, but noted that similar polls typically have a margin of error of three percent.
Andrew Harnik; Adam Gray
Is a victory for the Democrats realistic?
Dr. Kevin Wagner, professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University and co-director of the PolCom Lab, said Newsweek via text message that “a Democratic tinge in Florida would be a surprising result” given “the lessons we have learned from recent election cycles.”
“The state has a clear and fairly pronounced Republican bias,” Wagner said. “If the Democrats come in, it could potentially be a tough fight, but I would need a longer poll trend to substantially change the outlook.”
“Floridians are not easy to categorize,” he added. “However, like many Americans, the most important issues for them are the economy, cost of living and immigration. The dominant issue changes somewhat depending on where you live and party affiliation.”
Wagner’s colleague Craig Agranoff of Florida Atlantic University, an associate professor specializing in political marketing and election campaigns, argued in a text to Newsweek that while it would be “a huge challenge” if Harris could “flip” Florida this year, it was “not impossible.”
Dr. Judithanne Scourfield McLauchlan, associate professor of political science and founding director of the Center for Civic Engagement at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg, said in an email to Newsweek that it “definitely looks like the tide has turned” and “Florida could be in the game.”
McLauchlan said a Harris victory was possible because of a “surge in support for Harris in the Latino community,” popular initiatives on abortion rights and recreational marijuana, and enthusiasm that could lead to higher Democratic turnout among women and younger voters.
“The support for Harris Walz is very similar to the Obama coalition that won Florida in 2008 and 2012,” McLauchlan said. “With Harris at the top of the ticket – and the renewed enthusiasm of Democratic base voters, women, Latinos and young voters – and the ballot initiatives designed to increase turnout – it actually seems possible that Florida will go Democratic.”
“If these trends continue, Florida is certainly within striking distance,” she added.
Octavio Jones
A narrow defeat could still benefit Harris and the Democrats
Regardless of the outcome, Harris could improve her overall chances of winning the White House by keeping Florida close to her, as it would force Trump to invest campaign money and time in that state rather than in swing states like Pennsylvania.
However, Democrats have been reluctant to spend advertising money in Florida this year, as the state has recently been trending toward Democrats. According to a Miami-Herald Report citing Christopher Brimer of the Atlanta-based agency Canal Partners Media. Trump’s campaign allegedly spent no money.
A strong showing by Harris in Florida – whether it leads to her victory or not – could give Democrats an additional advantage by increasing voter turnout in a way that could cause problems for Republicans in other high-profile elections.
Last week USA TODAYA poll conducted by /Suffolk/WSVN-TV found incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott had a net popularity rating of minus 14 points, while unconfirmed reports suggest Scott poured large sums of his own money into his campaign to fend off Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
“Even if Kamala Harris doesn’t win Florida, narrowing the margin could strengthen the Democratic base and increase turnout in other closely contested states,” Agranoff said. “A close result in Florida could also be a sign of changing demographics or attitudes, which could have long-term implications for future elections.”
