Former President Donald Trump received good news from a poll released Sunday after overall national polls and polls in swing states had overwhelmingly favored Vice President Kamala Harris in recent days.
A CBS News/YouGov poll of 3,258 registered voters conducted August 14-16 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points shows a very close presidential race between Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, and Harris, with Trump leading among people who believe the economy, inflation and the U.S.-Mexico border are important factors in their voting decision.
This came nearly a month after Harris entered the presidential race after President Joe Biden ended the campaign and endorsed her on July 21. She is expected to formally accept the party’s nomination on Thursday, the final night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
Newsweek contacted the Trump team via email on Sunday and asked for comment.
Contested states
According to the CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump and Harris are neck and neck in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with both candidates receiving 50 percent of the vote each.
Swing states play a key role in the presidential election, and polls in these states are often considered more meaningful than the national average, since a majority of the vote does not guarantee winning the White House. To become president, a candidate must receive 270 votes in the Electoral College, and swing states can swing the election in favor of either candidate.
Updates to the CBS News statistical model based on the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, show the candidates tied at 50 percent in Pennsylvania and 49 percent in Wisconsin.
According to the poll, Trump is ahead in Arizona by one percentage point (50 percent) compared to Harris’ 49 percent, and in Georgia and North Carolina by two percentage points (50 percent compared to 48 percent).
On the other hand, the model shows Harris leading in Nebraska with 50 percent to Trump’s 47 percent, in Nevada with 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, and in Michigan with 49 percent to 48 percent.
A recent New York Times/A Siena College poll of likely voters in swing states shows Harris ahead of Trump in North Carolina and Arizona, while Trump leads Harris in Nevada and Georgia. A poll of 655 likely voters in North Carolina conducted between August 9 and 14 showed Harris ahead of Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error in this poll in that state is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
In Arizona, Harris received 50 percent of the votes among 677 likely voters from August 8 to 15, while Trump received 45 percent. The margin of error in the Arizona poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
In Nevada, Trump was ahead by just under one percentage point among 661 likely voters from August 9 to 14, putting him ahead of Harris by 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error for the state’s poll was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Trump had the largest lead in Georgia. A poll of 661 likely voters found that 50 percent would vote for Trump and 46 percent for Harris. The poll, conducted between August 9 and 14, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
The Trump team issued a press release in response to the Just/Siena College poll, saying it was “once again a perfect example of how the wildly inaccurate 2020 rerun poll between President Trump and Joe Biden is being used to create a false lead for Kamala Harris.”
Adam Gray/Getty Images
Economy and inflation
The CBS News poll shows that 83 percent of voters consider the economy an “important factor” in their decision-making for the upcoming election, with inflation being the second most important factor at 76 percent. Voters can identify several issues as important factors in their voting decision.
When asked if voters believed “food and grocery store prices” would change under Harris or Trump, 48 percent said they would go up under Harris, while 37 percent said they would go up under Trump. The poll was largely conducted before Harris laid out her economic plan to stop grocery price gouging during a campaign speech on Friday.
More than half of voters believe that Harris’s decision as vice president has affected the economy in some way: 24 percent said it had a “strong” impact and 33 percent said it had a “some” impact.
56 percent of Trump voters said the economy was a decisive factor, while 61 percent cited inflation.
Immigration and the southern border
Voters overwhelmingly believe that Trump is more likely to reduce border crossings than Harris if he is re-elected. When asked if their policies would increase border crossings, 48 percent of voters said they expect an increase if Harris wins, while 8 percent said the same for Trump. Conversely, 72 percent believe that Trump would reduce border crossings if elected, while 21 percent believe Harris would.
Nearly a third of voters believe Harris had “a lot” to do with the current situation at the border, while 28 percent believe she had some influence.
Seventy-six percent of respondents who plan to vote for Trump consider the US-Mexico border to be an important factor in their decision. In contrast, only 24 percent of those who plan to vote for Harris consider this an important factor.
Survey averages
Nationally, the CBS News poll found Harris leading Trump among likely voters, 51 percent to 48 percent.
Harris is leading in several other national polls, and a survey released Thursday by conservative pollster Rasmussen Reports shows Trump leading Harris by four percentage points among likely voters (49 percent to 45 percent).
The Rasmussen Report poll of 1,885 likely voters was conducted on August 8 and between August 11 and 14. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
Since Sunday, Harris has also been leading in several national overall polls, including FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, The New York Times, and The Hill with margins between 1 and 2.6 percentage points.
The aggregators of the swing states have also moved closer to Harris. Just Overall polls show Harris trailing only in Georgia and tied in Arizona, but ahead of Trump elsewhere.
According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin totals, Harris is ahead in Arizona, but behind Trump in Nevada and Georgia.
