A archival photo of leaves beginning to change color in Michigan (Amber Ainsworth/FOX 2)
(FOX 2) – As the summer heat lingers, some leaves are already showing their fall colors, while other trees have already begun to shed their leaves – a strange sight when temperatures are above 90 degrees.
This summer has seen several periods of extreme heat and heavy rain, both of which affect when the leaves change color and how vibrant their fall colors will be.
We spoke with Davey Tree business developer and ISA certified arborist Josh Leo to understand why trees are changing now and what to expect this fall.
Why some trees are changing now
The biggest factors affecting the timing of leaf color and hue are temperature, rainfall and cool nights, Leo said. What some trees are experiencing now, he described as an early fall caused by heat or drought.
“The plants are tired,” he said. “We are nearing the end of the season and have had some hot days, but also a lot of moisture.”
Some leaves show their fall colors in northern Oakland County on August 24, 2024 (Photo: Amber Ainsworth/FOX 2)
If it hadn’t rained in the area in June and July, more trees would probably be changing color now, Leo said.
“I think we would be much worse off. I think we would see more fall color from heat stress than we are seeing now,” Leo said.
When will the foliage color reach its peak this year?
Although some colors are already visible, we still have a long way to go before the fall colors reach their peak.
“It will probably be somewhere in the third or fourth week of October,” Leo said of when the colors will peak in Metro Detroit.
However, this all depends on the temperature. Higher temperatures delay peaking, while cooler temperatures or a dry spell can speed up the process.
“This can all change in an instant if a cold snap suddenly hits or it doesn’t rain for 14, 15 or 20 days,” Leo said.
Such cold is not to be expected, at least according to the current weather forecast.
Photo courtesy of Climate Prediction Center
This fall is expected to be significantly warmer than average, according to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Temperatures in Michigan are expected to be moderately above average in September, October and November.
In terms of precipitation, Michigan is forecast to have near-normal precipitation – neither wetter nor drier than average.
How vibrant will the colors be this year?
It is clear that the leaves will change color, but the next big question is how bright their colors will be.
“The sequence of warm, sunny days followed by cool nights helps produce these colors. This slows down the breakdown of chlorophyll, making the colors more vibrant,” Leo said.
The result? Possibly a more vibrant fall, helped by warmer temperatures and rain that has fallen throughout the summer.
“In my opinion, we’re going to be just a little bit above average,” Leo said. “I would say we’re going to have a pretty good, vibrant colorway this season.”
Leo noted that other factors such as soil texture and type can also affect leaf vitality, as some soils, such as sandier soils, release moisture.
He added that watering large trees can contribute to brighter colors, especially in drier weather.
Where to see the leaves in Michigan
There’s actually no bad place in the state to experience fall colors, but Leo recommends visiting a state park if you want to see vibrant hues.
“It’s hard to beat a state park. There’s so much vegetation in these parts. And you get such a wide variety of plant material, from our maples to our oaks. Sugar maples are probably my favorite by far. But then you have the cottonwoods, which turn this really beautiful yellow color,” Leo said. “It’s a real Bob Ross painting.”
An undated photo of fall leaves in Maybury State Park (Photo: Amber Ainsworth/FOX 2)
If you want to travel to see the colors, you can’t go wrong with a trip north.
“I love going to northern Michigan. I love being on a lake. I just like that unified image of the fall colors on the lake and then the trees in the background,” he said. “To me, that’s a beautiful photo.”
Keep in mind that the colors start earlier if you travel outside of the Detroit metropolitan area. The Upper Peninsula typically reaches its peak in late September to early October, followed by the upper Lower Peninsula, and so on.
