Foreign powers compete for influence in Africa

Many African leaders will be coming to Beijing next month to attend the triennial summit with China. For the continent’s leaders, these joint meetings have become a familiar part of global summits – and not just with China.

In the past two years alone, the 54 African heads of state have been invited in large numbers to Washington, to a US-Africa summit hosted by President Joe Biden, to St. Petersburg for the second Russia-Africa summit with President Vladimir Putin, and in March to the Italy-Africa summit in Rome chaired by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

African leaders have also secured invitations to similar meetings in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and, as recently as June this year, South Korea – the most recent country to participate in African summits. Many will also be flying to Yokohama next year, as Japan is the most recent host.

Speaking during a recent visit to London, Malawi’s President Lazarus Chakwera reflected on the many diplomatic, security and trade opportunities available to African countries. He told his hosts that while it was “good to eat Chinese food sometimes,” an all-you-can-eat buffet was even better.

China is certainly not the only option on the list. Measured in terms of loans granted, Chinese interest in Africa peaked in 2016, when government loans totaled $28.4 billion, according to Boston University figures. By 2022, that figure will be only about $1 billion.

Call to Africa

This is the second part of a series examining the changing role of foreign nations in African politics, security and trade.

Part 1: US-backed railroad sparks battle for African copper
Part 2: Foreign powers compete for influence in Africa
Part 3: Turkey’s growing role in Africa (next Tuesday)

But while China’s attention waned, interest increased from several other countries, including Russia, India, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Brazil.

Africa is not usually high on the world’s diplomatic agenda, especially in times of conflict in the Middle East and Europe. But experts say many countries feel the need to develop or renew their “Africa strategy” because the continent has a rapidly growing population, a large amount of important minerals and 54 votes at the United Nations.

Chidi Odinkalu, a professor at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, expressed concern that rather than benefiting from its many seats, Africa will continue to be on the menu. He also wonders what it says about the continent that individual countries find it acceptable to negotiate with all of Africa’s leaders at once.

In theory, what Odinkalu calls the new “diplomatic polycentricity” offers opportunities. “The question is: is Africa in any way positioned to benefit from this? The fact that the African side has not progressed beyond primary production shows quite clearly that this is not the case,” he said.

According to World Bank figures, the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product in sub-Saharan Africa has declined, from 18 percent in 1981 to 11 percent last year, despite interest from potential investors.

Most African countries are trapped in colonial trade relationships in which they export raw materials and import manufactured goods, Odinkalu said. “I think this is a story of missed opportunities.”

While African countries have not deepened their trade and investment relations, they have certainly expanded them.

India has become the continent’s third-largest trading partner after the EU and China. At the same time, the UAE’s trade with Africa has increased almost fivefold in the past 20 years – much of it in gold and diamonds – making the country the continent’s fourth-largest investor, with cumulative investments of almost $60 billion over the past decade.

One risk that comes with the multitude of options, says Kenyan political commentator Patrick Gathara, is that some African governments, including his own, have borrowed too much. Zambia, Ghana and Ethiopia have all defaulted, and the IMF estimates that 25 African countries are at high risk of over-indebtedness. Kenya’s efforts to meet its loan obligations by squeezing higher taxes from the population sparked waves of mass protests on the streets and forced President William Ruto to back down.

Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at British think tank Chatham House, said African countries were trying to “better define” their national interests. Like Odinkalu, he fears they do not always have the diplomatic or official bandwidth to exploit them.

Vines compared the strategy of being friends with many nations but a customer of none to the attitude of Djibouti, which has rented out its Red Sea coast as bases to several competing powers, including China, the United States, France and Japan.

South Africa – a member of the BRICS states alongside Brazil, Russia, India and China, and now also Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates – pursues a sometimes uncomfortable policy of non-alignment, in the course of which it has conducted naval operations with Russia and China while simultaneously soliciting investment from the West.

Ken Opalo, an associate professor at Georgetown University in Washington, says too much interest from foreign actors in the continent is not always a good thing.

He cited the example of the war in Sudan that broke out last year and drew “middle powers” such as the Gulf states and neighboring countries such as Egypt and Ethiopia into the conflict. The United Arab Emirates in particular is accused of fueling the conflict by supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Opalo fears the war could lead to a “Libyan stalemate,” by which he means another ugly end to a conflict involving several foreign powers.

In Europe, despite its trade opportunities, Africa is often seen as a potential source of instability, terror and migration, with the country’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 and experiencing insurgencies linked to IS and al-Qaeda, as well as political unrest.

Mali and Niger cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine this month as a dispute escalates over whether Kyiv supported rebels who have killed Malian soldiers and mercenaries with links to Russia’s private military group Wagner.

Coups in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso were followed by juntas that expelled French and American troops and forged closer ties with Russia and Wagner. In most cases, this change of course was accompanied by an increase in violence, reports Acled, an organization that collects data on conflicts.

“Many African countries are trying to find a middle ground,” Vines said. “And that’s exactly the difficulty. There are a lot of miscalculations.”

Data visualization by Keith Fray and cartography by Steven Bernard