After winning the first game of the series so convincingly, the Royals now have a chance to do something no one expected and win the first game. two games in their series against the Phillies tonight.
With last night’s victory, after winning five of six games against the Reds and Angels, the Royals made a convincing statement that they have returned to their early-season form, where they beat everyone except the Orioles and Twins. While the rest of the division stumbled, the Royals continued to win last night and will enter tonight’s game just a single win (plus a Guardians loss) away from finishing first in the division for the first time this season, as all were 0-0.
Brady Singer will be on the mound tonight. After outplaying left-hander Andrew Abbott on Sunday, he now faces a much tougher left-hander: Ranger Suárez of the Phillies.
The good news for the Royals is that Singer has been pretty good this year, and Sunday’s performance was a rebound for him after a couple of bad starts. Even taking those bad starts into account, Singer has pitched well in the second half, posting a 3.11 ERA and a 2.69 FIP in 37.2 innings across six starts. He’s also allowed 37 strikeouts and just 8 walks during that span.
Suárez hasn’t pitched in the major leagues for over a month now due to a back injury, and he returns from rehab tonight to face the Royals. Before his injury, Suárez had struggled to a 7.71 ERA in his last four starts. Over the course of the season, he allowed 100 hits in 119 innings, but during that span he allowed 29 hits in just 21 innings. If his issues aren’t just health-related or he’s hesitant to pitch again, the Royals could be in luck.
The Royals will obviously need some luck as they have struggled against left-handed pitchers this year, as their second-tier players like Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, MJ Melendez and Kyle Isbel are all left-handed, which often leads manager Matt Quatraro to fill out his lineup with third-tier or worse players like Garrett Hampson.
Lineups
Despite the last paragraph, the only left-handed hitter sitting out today will be MJ Melendez, who REALLY has trouble against same-side pitchers. Interestingly, even Paul DeJong will sit out so Michael Massey can play left-handed. Either Quartraro decided it was better to put his best hitters in the lineup against a left-handed pitcher, too, or he looked it up — like I just did — and realized Suárez doesn’t have much of an advantage against same-side hitters and decided to just take it. Suárez strikes out more left-handed hitters and walks fewer left-handed hitters, but allows more hits and more extra-base hits to left-handed hitters, resulting in a worse OPS against and FIP.
Singer has struggled against lefties this year, and those problems are unlikely to improve tonight against a lineup that includes Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh. And the righties are no picnic either. If the Royals want to win tonight, Singer will have to avoid getting overwhelmed by the lefties, but also not slack against the righties. That’s certainly a tall order, but it’s one of the things you can expect from a playoff-quality starting pitcher.
