Voters influence the outcome of the presidential debate between Trump and Harris
Young voters express their expectations for the first debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
WASHINGTON — Kamala Harris is ahead or tied with Donald Trump in six of seven swing states, according to a new poll released Wednesday, cutting the lead the former Republican president had before Joe Biden dropped out of the race last month.
According to the Cook Political Report poll, conducted by Democratic pollster BSG and Republican pollster GS Strategy Group, Harris is ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona, and is tied with Trump in Georgia. Nevada is the only swing state where Trump still leads, according to the poll.
The poll’s margin of error ranges from +/- 4.7 percentage points to 4.9 percentage points depending on the state, and Harris’ lead in three states – Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina – is within that range.
The results suggest that Harris, the vice president and Democratic nominee, has several paths open to get the 270 votes she needs to win the election after Biden’s difficulties in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina forced him to increasingly focus his campaign on the so-called “Blue Wall” states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
More: Latest Harris-Trump poll shows how much danger the former president is in in Florida
Trump was ahead of Biden in six of the seven swing states and tied with Biden in Wisconsin, according to a poll conducted by the same pollsters in May. But Harris has now largely solidified the Democratic base, the poll found: 91 percent of voters who supported Biden in 2020 now say they would vote for Harris, compared to 82 percent of that group in May who said they would vote for Biden.
Harris leads Trump among independent voters in the seven swing states, 48% to 40%, while Trump previously led Biden among independents, 41% to 38%. And perhaps most importantly, Harris leads “double hater” voters – those who say they don’t like either Biden or Trump – by a whopping 30 percentage points, 54% to 24%. Trump previously led this group, too.
More: Meet the growing “double haters” who could decide whether Biden or Trump wins the election
“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what was,” wrote Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report, in an analysis of the results. “She is the incumbent, yet 56% of voters in swing states say she offers a chance to ‘close the chapter on the Trump/Biden era,’ and 59% see her as representing a ‘new generation of leaders.'”
The Trump team has tried to slow Harris’ advance by accusing her of “dangerous liberalism” and linking her to Biden, whose approval ratings have hovered around 40 percent for most of his term in office.
Harris, who last week waged a blitzkrieg in several battleground states with her new running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, still describes herself as an “underdog” in the race. She will look to build her poll numbers at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next week.
The poll was a survey of 2,867 likely voters in seven swing states conducted between July 26 and August 2 and included third-party candidates.
Arizona
Harris is ahead of Trump in the poll, 46% to 42%. In May, Trump was 5 percentage points ahead of Biden in Arizona.
Georgia
Harris and Trump are tied at 46% in the poll. In May, Trump was 4 percentage points ahead of Biden in Georgia.
Michigan
Harris is ahead of Trump in the poll, 46% to 44%. In May, Trump was 3 percentage points ahead of Biden in Michigan.
Nevada
Trump is ahead of Harris in the poll, 47% to 42%. In May, Trump was 8 percentage points ahead of Biden in Nevada.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, Harris is ahead of Trump in the poll, 46% to 44%. In May, Trump was 8 percentage points ahead of Biden in North Carolina.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by 48% to 43%. In May, Trump was 3 percentage points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by 48% to 43%. In May, Trump and Biden were tied in Wisconsin.
Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.
