Former President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamal Harris
Reuters
According to a new poll by the New York Times and Siena College, Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The poll found Harris outperforming Trump in all three states by 50% to 46% among likely voters, with those margins within the poll’s margin of error. Likely voters are a subset of all registered voters surveyed.
From Monday through Thursday, 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin were surveyed. From Tuesday through Friday, 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed.
The results in a head-to-head comparison differ slightly when all registered voters are taken into account: Harris maintained a four-point lead in Wisconsin, but was three percentage points ahead in Pennsylvania and was even three percentage points behind Trump in Michigan.
The Times/Siena poll is the latest data point tracing the broader shake-up that has taken place since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee. Although the poll still shows a neck-and-neck race between the candidates, it is clear that Harris has fundamentally changed the state of the race compared to just a month ago.
In the weeks since Biden’s departure, Harris has recovered much of the Democrats’ lost votes and in some cases even taken over Trump’s lead.
In May, before the president’s disastrous performance at the June debate, Times/Siena polls showed Biden tied with Trump in Wisconsin, and Biden trailing the Republican presidential candidate in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
One result has remained unchanged even after the restructuring of the Democratic Party: the economy is one of the most important election issues for registered voters.
Recession fears were on full display last week after stock markets plunged on Monday and struggled to recoup their gains in the days that followed. The market decline was partly the result of a weaker-than-expected jobs report that fueled fears that the Federal Reserve’s refusal to cut interest rates is putting too much pressure on the economy.
According to the Times/Siena poll, Trump is nine percentage points ahead of Harris in voters’ opinion of his handling of the economy.
The Times/Siena polls also came as voters were voting for Harris’s vice presidential nominee, Tim Walz, whom she chose Tuesday after an elaborate selection process. Although Walz was barely known nationally two weeks ago, he has been catapulted into the spotlight by his outspoken media interviews, affable demeanor and his move into politics after working as a high school teacher.
Despite Walz’s highly progressive political record, some Democrats saw his rural Midwestern background as an opportunity to expand the Democratic coalition.
According to the Times/Siena poll, Walz has the same approval rating of 36 percent of registered voters as Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance. However, only 27 percent of respondents gave Walz a negative rating, compared to 46 percent for Vance.
In addition to her gains in the polls, Harris has also seen a boom in enthusiasm since launching her presidential campaign in the form of record donations, new volunteers and crowds filling entire arenas.
With 87 days to go until the election and even fewer days until early voting, Harris’ campaign is working to ensure that the initial hype translates into real votes at the ballot box.
“We are the underdogs in this race, but we have the momentum and I know exactly what’s coming,” Harris said Wednesday at a rally in Philadelphia with more than 12,000 people.
