The best advantage for the vice president and the Democrats is that the Republicans have built a bond with the former president.
Trump comments on Democrat Tim Walz
Donald Trump speaks to Kamala Harris’ running mate Tim Walz during a press conference from Florida.
Fox – 4 News
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump made a big mistake when he chose Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate. Trump’s overconfidence in the race against President Joe Biden led him to prioritize the MAGA legacy.
Trump’s misstep became clear when Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. The situation in the presidential election changed rapidly.
Harris then chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and this campaign appears to be continuing its positive trend, even though Republicans strongly criticized the Democratic vice presidential candidate.
The election changed, the polls changed, and Trump remained Vance. But the choice of Vance is just a symptom of a problem that has plagued Trump for years: his over-reliance on his own hand-picked candidates and the willingness of Republicans to just play along.
Through his hubris, Trump has now jeopardized both the election and his legacy – and given Democrats the momentum they are enjoying as the Democratic National Convention begins on Monday. Trump continues to be his own worst enemy.
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A month ago, the race seemed virtually decided. Biden was reeling from his terrible debate performance and his rock-bottom approval ratings. The polls were disastrous for him.
On the other hand, America had just seen Trump survive an assassination attempt and raise his fist to his supporters after being punched in the ear days before the Republican National Convention. Trump was on the verge of making a splash.
Then, within weeks, Trump chose Vance, Biden withdrew from the re-election race, and Harris took control of the Democratic ticket and, seemingly, the election.
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Harris essentially regained the ground Biden had lost to Trump. Although she was generally neck and neck with Trump in the polls, the perception was that she faced an uphill battle to regain the trust Americans had lost to Biden.
Since then, however, Harris has been able to gain steadily in the polls and slowly but clearly position herself ahead of Trump.
To put this massive shift in sentiment into context, on July 15, Trump had an implied 66.2% chance of winning the November election. Since then, his chances have dropped by more than 20 percentage points, leaving him well behind Harris.
If you had asked me a month ago what the polls would look like now, I would have predicted Trump would pull away. Even if I had known Harris would step in, I probably wouldn’t have changed my mind much.
Why is Harris doing so well?
This massive change leads me to ask a question: What are the Democrats doing right?
In my opinion, almost nothing. Harris’s steady rise in the polls is simply because she doesn’t make particularly offensive decisions and because Democrats are unhappy with Biden.
But what helps the Democrats most is the fact that Trump is electoral poison.
Aside from his surprise victory in 2016, Trump has actively harmed the Republican Party electorally since taking public office.
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In the 2018 midterm elections, the Democrats recaptured the House of Representatives.
When Trump lost the presidency in 2020, the Republican Party lost the Senate and failed to regain control of the House of Representatives. Even worse for Trump, the Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives were trailing Biden nationally, further indicating that the problem lies with the top candidates.
The 2022 midterm elections only confirmed this hypothesis, as what was expected to be a huge red wave for Republicans turned out to be just a trickle. While Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives, they failed to regain control of the Senate, largely due to Trump’s failed displays of support across the country.
Now, in 2024, Trump’s overconfidence and narcissism could once again cost Republicans electoral victories. By choosing Vance and successfully rallying the Republican National Committee behind him as a party platform, Trump squandered the broad appeal that Republicans could have enjoyed after four terrible years of Biden.
Rather than seize the opportunity for Republican unity and growing influence over the electorate, Trump has chosen to sow further divisions within his own party and transform the Republican Party entirely into the party of Trump. Rather than building bridges with the Trump-skeptical factions of the Republican Party, he has instead chosen to push our movement further away from the roots on which he built his 2016 campaign.
Trump and Vance have been so unpopular with voters that the extremely liberal Walz has hardly helped the Republicans. Harris has her own problems as a presidential candidate, but these are nothing compared to the baggage that Trump brings to the election.
Such a turbulent campaign only opens the door for further re-election campaigns. Trump could still win, but a defeat in 2024 would be devastating for his reputation, as it would be the fourth election in a row in which Trump actively harms his own party’s electoral success.
In reality, what is best for the Democrats is Republican incompetence and Trump’s own ego. It has always been that way.
Dace Potas is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY and a graduate of DePaul University with a degree in political science.
