Martin Bentsen
The 2024 presidential election, it is said, will be decided in a handful of swing states. The race is so close that a single vote in the Electoral College could determine the outcome. And that explains the big focus on Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which often, but not always, votes Democratic.
Nebraska is one of only two states that splits its Electoral College votes rather than using a winner-take-all system. Each of the three congressional districts awards one Electoral College vote to the person who receives the majority of votes within the district. (The other state is Maine.)
The 2nd District consists mainly of Omaha. It went to Barack Obama in 2008 and to Joe Biden in 2020 – but to Donald Trump in 2016. Democratic strategists like to call it the blue dot in a sea of red. Some refer to the district as the seventh or eighth swing state.
There are scenarios in which one vote in the Electoral College can decide who gets the White House. In 1876, Republican Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency by that tiny margin (albeit after a long battle over 20 disputed electoral votes).
What’s important for the 2024 election is how Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, could help swing things in the Democrats’ direction in unexpected places. Walz is from rural Nebraska, and the 2nd Congressional District includes some areas that rely heavily on agriculture, namely Saunders County and part of Sarpy County.
Walz spent summers working on family farms far from the bright lights of Omaha, mostly in and around a town called Valentine (been there, great burgers). Valentine is the government center of Cherry County. And to get an idea of how rural Cherry County is, consider this: Cherry County is about five times the size of Rhode Island and has less than 1% of the population.
Walz also spent time teaching in the railroad town of Alliance. Located far to the west in the Nebraska Panhandle, one of Alliance’s most famous sites is Carhenge, a replica of England’s Stonehenge cleverly constructed from old vehicles.
Walz’s sunny disposition from the heart of the country appears to be helping Democrats in the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Realistically, few expect the Minnesota governor’s roots in the sprawling 3rd Congressional District to overcome the pull of MAGA in this land of farmers and ranchers. No Democrat has won a majority within the current boundaries since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. Nebraska’s smaller but largely rural 1st District west of Omaha is also reliably Republican.
But Walz could well garner enough votes on the dirt roads of Saunders and Sarpy counties to ensure the Blue Dot stays blue in November. Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, specializes in bridging the political divide between urban liberals and more conservative rural voters — to the extent possible.
Aware of the potential threat posed by Nebraska’s tradition of apportioning Electoral College votes along congressional districts, the Trump-controlled Republican Party is seeking to move the state to a winner-take-all system that would surely wipe out the power of the Blue Dot movement.
The problem is that Maine’s political leaders are threatening to impose winner-take-all if Nebraska does so. And if that happens, the electoral votes Trump won in Maine’s rural 2nd District would almost certainly be wiped out by the state’s Democratic majority.
Kleeb has suggested that instead of changing the rules just before an election, Trump should try to compete for votes in the 2nd District. What an original thought.
If the outcome of the 2024 presidential election comes down to a single electoral vote, the 2nd Congressional District could make the difference. Walz of Nebraska could make it his mission to keep the blue dot blue.
Follow Froma Harrop on Twitter @FromaHarrop. You can reach her at [email protected].
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