Minnesota’s often progressive politics and Democratic leanings set it apart from the rest of the Midwest.
Neighboring Wisconsin is one of several key swing states that could influence the election, and Nebraska and both Dakotas remain Republican. Iowa was once a swing state but has moved to the right in recent years. Minnesota, however, has remained a true Democratic state.
According to Mike Wagner, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who grew up in Minnesota and has lived in many Midwestern states, Minnesota has a unique combination of greater urbanization, greater ethnic diversity, more job opportunities and a history of progressivism that sets the state apart from the rest of the Upper Midwest.
“From a communications standpoint, from a manufacturing standpoint, from an agriculture standpoint, from a voter turnout standpoint, Minnesota has been a stronger haven for Democrats than some other places in the Midwest,” Wagner told the Washington Examiner.
Demographics of the state
Minnesota has the second-highest Somali population outside of Somalia, which contributes to its ethnic and religious diversity. According to U.S. Census data, Minnesota has a diversity index of 40.5%, while Wisconsin has a diversity index of 37% and Iowa has a diversity index of 30.8%.
“In Minnesota, 80% of the population is white, in Wisconsin, it’s 83%. That’s not a big difference, but a difference between half a percent and three and a half percent in the election is a pretty big difference,” Wagner said.
“We’ve seen Minnesota elect more diverse candidates to office than many other places. For example, Ilhan Omar is a member of Congress, the lieutenant governor is Native American … and so diversity is reflected in the makeup of the legislature in a way that isn’t as true as in other Midwestern states,” Wagner said, noting that there is diversity in other Midwestern states, “just not as much.”
Since Governor Tim Walz (D-Minn.) was thrust into the national spotlight on Tuesday when Vice President Kamala Harris announced him as her running mate, the progressive policies he has passed in the Democratic-controlled Minnesota House of Representatives have also come under the spotlight.
Just two years ago, Democrats took control of both houses of the Minnesota Legislature, and since then Walz and his lawmakers have turned the state around, giving schoolchildren free meals for all, expanding access to reproductive services and legalizing marijuana, among other Democratic measures.
“There is no place like Minnesota right now,” Walz said during his State of the State address earlier this year. “Together, we are not only showing the people of Minnesota what we are capable of when it comes to delivering on our promises. We are showing the entire American people the promise of this progressive vision that so many people share.”
Farmers’ voice, not country voice
Wisconsin and Minnesota are perhaps the most frequently compared states in this region, but Wisconsin has leaned slightly more Republican than its neighbor. Although both states have large rural populations, Wisconsin’s population is more rural, while Minnesota’s rural population is largely made up of farmers.
“What is missing in Wisconsin and what is present in Minnesota is the voice of farmers,” said Jonathan Kasparek, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, who Star-Tribune.
Because Minnesota’s Democratic Party, the Democratic Farm Labor Party, uses the word “farm” literally and often advocates for the concerns of farmers and workers, it was able to win slightly more farmer votes than other Midwestern states, according to Wagner.
“The votes of farmers and those of the rural population are different. The majority of the rural population is not involved in agriculture at all,” said Kasparek. “The Republicans were able to win over these voters primarily by focusing on cultural issues, pro-life and an anti-elitist attitude.”
The Minnesota Republican Party has also struggled financially for years, allowing DFL organizers to gain a vote that Republicans would normally win. In June, the DFL had about $2 million in its campaign account, while the Minnesota GOP had about $78,000.
At one point in the race, former President Donald Trump argued that Minnesota was in play as enthusiasm for President Joe Biden’s campaign waned.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state by more than 44,000 votes, but in 2020, Biden increased Clinton’s lead, winning Minnesota by seven percentage points, or more than 230,000 votes.
Given that Walz remains popular in the state and Minnesota has not elected a Republican president since 1972, it is unlikely that Trump would win the state.
“I don’t know if it would have been a wise investment of Trump campaign resources compared to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona,” Wagner said.
Job offers
Minnesota did not create as many manufacturing jobs in the 20th century as states like Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. During the Great Recession of 2008, Minnesota lost far fewer manufacturing jobs than other Midwestern states like Ohio and Michigan because, according to the Star-Tribune.
These states, which had the “blue wall” for years, switched to Republicans in the 2016 election when Trump campaigned on promises to bring back those kinds of jobs. Because Minnesota was not hit as hard by these events, they did not switch like their counterparts in the upper Midwest.
Wagner also pointed to a rise in conservative talk radio stations, which are more popular with Wisconsin residents than Minnesota residents.
“We saw a slight decline in manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin. At the same time, conservative talk radio was gaining prominence, which led to a decline in jobs that are often filled by more left-leaning voters. Added to that was a communications environment that suggested to Wisconsinites that Democrats were to blame for their problems. I think both had something to do with it,” Wagner said.
The state is also more urban than other Midwestern states. The twin cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul and their surrounding suburbs make up more than half of the state’s population. In recent years, urban population centers have become more educated and liberal, and Minnesota is no exception.
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“It’s more likely to be people who may have moved to the Twin Cities area from other parts of the state and are a little more left-leaning there, while the suburbs around Milwaukee are more Republican,” Wagner said.
Minnesota is also home to more than a dozen well-known Fortune 500 companies, including Target, United Health, US Bank, General Mills and Xcel Energy. The state is also home to the nation’s top hospital system, the Mayo Clinic.
