The Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Kursk region took both Russians and Ukraine’s allies by surprise. There is no doubt that the attack embarrassed Moscow. The Russian Defense Ministry clearly left a weak spot in its lines that the Ukrainians could exploit. At the same time, however, the Ukrainians have not given any real clues as to what the strategic or even tactical goal of the attack is.
There are three related aspects that stand out about this attack and make it seem unusual. First, if the attack is aimed at taking and holding Russian territory, it is not clear what logistical routes the Ukrainians plan to use for supplies. Second, the Ukrainian army is already overstretched on the main front lines, so it is odd that the Ukrainians would pull some of their best soldiers to launch an attack on Kursk when there is no target. Third, the fighting conditions in Kursk are dire for the Ukrainians – their lack of air defense means they are easy prey for Russian aircraft, missiles and drones.
Some say the attack is simply to draw attention to the Ukrainians, and that may well be true. Another interpretation, however, is that the Ukrainians are trying to capture the Kurchatov nuclear power plant in the western Kursk region. News reports say the Ukrainians have advanced 30 kilometers into Russia. However, Russian war maps show that fighting extends as far as Kromskie Byki, which is 60 kilometers from the Russian border by road. The Kursk nuclear power plant is about 50 kilometers from Kromskie Byki by road, so from a purely geographical perspective, the evidence suggests that Ukraine may be trying to capture it. Russia is expecting an attack and its forces are already building fortifications around the plant.
