WASHINGTON – Democratic Senator Regina Barrow was at her church in north Baton Rouge on July 21 when her phone flooded with news that President Joe Biden was withdrawing his re-election effort.
She gasped audibly for air.
“People turned and looked at me,” Barrow recalled. “They asked what was going to happen now, and I said, ‘I don’t know.'”
What happened next was that Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, which did not initially allay fears because so few knew much about her.
But state party organizations, including Louisiana, and leading Democratic politicians supported Harris’ candidacy.
“She stepped up to the task and spoke with such confidence that people believed she could do this job and do it well,” Barrow said. “The energy she exuded surpassed the electricity we saw from President (Barack) Obama. This is a historic moment.”
Harris has been able to galvanize her party loyalists, especially young voters, minorities and women. Over the past four weeks, Harris has overtaken Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump in many polls.
For Democrats in Louisiana, Harris’ candidacy was a win for a base of voters that supported Biden but was not particularly passionate about him.
“I want to emphasize the enthusiasm that I see from the hairdresser to the grocery store. The level of enthusiasm energizes me,” said Democratic U.S. Representative Troy Carter of New Orleans.
Biden spoke incoherently and seemed lost during the June 27 debate with Trump – a performance that summed up the simmering unease about Biden’s age. Trump may be only four years younger than the 81-year-old president, but the age problem had not haunted him.
Then the July 13 assassination attempt and the photo of a defiant Trump clenching his fist and dripping blood from his ear mobilized Republican voters. The former president left the Republican National Convention on July 18 as the clear favorite to win in November.
“Friends who are not in politics asked me, ‘Will Trump win?’” recalls Democrat and state Rep. Mandie Landry of New Orleans.
Harris, 59, got off to a strong start: “She’s young. She’s pretty. She’s charming. She’s articulate. She’s smart,” Landry said, adding that she changed the dynamic of a race that had been fought between two older white men, both of whom had high negative ratings.
Harris has been much disparaged in the Republican party bubble since she took office as vice president. But few people knew much about her. She has worked at every level of government – as city attorney, attorney general, U.S. senator, and now vice president.
When Democrats in Louisiana learned about her, Landry said, they were convinced that Harris was not only a good candidate, but also a changemaker with the potential to win.
As with all recent presidential elections, most states will vote for either the Democrats or the Republicans, putting both candidates within striking distance of the 270 electoral votes they need to win.
The race will ultimately come down to about seven states that could go either way. Biden had fallen slightly behind Trump in these swing states.
According to an average of poll results compiled by The New York Times, Harris is currently ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and perhaps Nevada. Trump is leading in Georgia, Arizona and perhaps North Carolina.
“Lead” may be an exaggeration. Both Harris and Trump are within the margin of error – which means the race is still wide open.
Veteran Baton Rouge-based political strategist Roy Fletcher said the polls reflected the enthusiasm Harris has brought to the Democratic Party.
“They feel they have a chance to win now, something they didn’t feel before,” Fletcher said.
Baton Rouge pollster John Couvillon agreed that Harris’s surge is being fueled by the return of enthusiastic Democratic voters to the party, but the numbers are not enough to launch a victory lap.
Biden is trailing Trump by about the same narrow margin as Harris is now ahead, Couvillon said, adding: “There aren’t that many mobile, trackable voters nationwide.”
Turnout in early voting, which begins in some states in September, will provide a much better indication of which supporters of the candidate are so enthusiastic that they will actually cast their vote, Couvillon said.
None of Louisiana’s Democratic officials are under any illusion that the fervor surrounding Harris will be enough to beat Trump in the state, where he won 58% of the vote in Louisiana in the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections.
“Yes, we are energized. Yes, we are excited. I think she will win. But this is still a red state,” said Randal Gaines, chairman of the Louisiana Democratic Party.
