Map of Kursk shows Ukraine’s successes despite Russian fears of new advance

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian troops are making little progress in their invasion of Kursk. Its latest map shows the development of Kyiv’s surprise advance into Russian territory.

At this point, Russian military bloggers are speculating that Ukraine may be preparing for another offensive in the south of the country, amid uncertainty about Kyiv’s long-term plans for its unprecedented push into Russia, now in its third week.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration, caught off guard by Ukraine’s invasion on August 6, is considering whether to help Kyiv forces hold or even expand the territory they currently occupy in Kursk. The Washington Post reported.

The Washington-based think tank said on Friday that Ukrainian forces continued to make incremental advances east and north of the border town of Sudzha. The ISW’s latest map of the region shows how a Russian source had claimed Ukraine had advanced along the P-200 highway north of Martynovka and that geolocated footage showed advances in Russkaya Konopelka.

Satellite maps from OSINT analysis portal Frontelligence Insight show that in response to Kyiv’s advance, Russian forces continue to build a defensive line in the Kursk region, south and southwest of the Kursk nuclear power plant in Kurchatov, whose location amid hostilities has sparked international concern.

“Although fortifications can pose a serious obstacle, their effectiveness depends on whether they are manned by experienced veterans or poorly trained conscripts,” says Frontelligence Insight posted on X.

As uncertainty grows about Ukraine’s objectives with the operation and its future course of action, Russian military bloggers speculate that Kyiv is considering an offensive toward Zaporizhia on the southern front.

The pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Rybar said that the Ukrainian command sets up a task force and equips the units stationed there with fire support resources, including drones.

“One of the most likely scenarios is an enemy offensive near Kamyanske,” said an English-language report on Russia’s Channel X. The aim is to recapture Tokmak “with another attempt to cut off the road to Crimea, as well as to recapture Enerhodar with the subsequent occupation of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.”

The report said that “several direct and indirect signs point to the enemy’s plans.” Satellite reconnaissance that had filmed potential air defense positions and headquarters of the Russian armed forces was cited as evidence.

Another military blogger, NGP Razvedka, said Ukraine was concentrating its forces in the Odessa region and the Ochakiv settlement “with the aim of attacking the Kinburn and Tendrovskaya spits” in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions.

The X-account War is Translated shared the post and wrote: “Even though these conversations have been going on Russian channels for several days, the paranoia is likely influenced by the invasion of Kursk.”

Newsweek has asked the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment on the claims, which have not been independently verified.

The shape of Ukraine’s push into Russia and its impact on the rest of the front line are forcing Kyiv’s allies to assess their support for an operation they apparently knew nothing about.

The Washington Post said the Pentagon had asked Kyiv what it would need to make the move work, given uncertainty about the country’s overall attack strategy, its dependence on U.S. weapons and concerns about a direct escalation of U.S.-NATO relations with Russia.

“They may have a plan, but they are not telling us,” an unnamed US official told the newspaper.