Military experts have suggested to Fox News Digital that it remains entirely possible that Iran will declare itself a nuclear power this year, as the US’s political future remains uncertain amid a hotly contested presidential election.
“I think that’s a real option,” said James Carafano, vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the Heritage Foundation. “I mean, if I were the Iranians and I was going to do it, I would do it now because Biden isn’t going to do anything.”
“The Israelis are stuck, and you have months left before Trump – if he wins – comes to power. And by then you will have established nuclear power, and what will happen then.
“He’s not going to start World War III, is he?” Carafano added. “He’s not going to come in and bomb Iran on day one. He’s not going to do that, and they know it.”
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The Biden administration has repeatedly warned over the past year that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the Aspen Security Forum in July that Iran is “now probably a week or two away” from achieving the “breakthrough capacity to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon”.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets with Iran’s acting President Mohammad Mokhber and cabinet members at the Imam Khomeini Husseiniya in Tehran, Iran, July 7, 2024. (Iranian Presidential Press Office/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Blinken blamed the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, for Iran’s accelerated development. He stressed that the US had not seen any evidence at the time that Iran already had a nuclear weapon, Barron’s reported.
A US State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital: “We are committed to never allowing Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome.”
Carafano argued that the uncertainty of the US presidential election, and in particular the fact that President Biden resigned as a lame duck following his decision not to seek a second term, presented Iran with a crucial opportunity.
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“It doesn’t matter whether you could use a nuclear weapon or not,” Carafano explained. “You would just say that and everyone would freak out. You could say, ‘Well, I’m now declaring myself a nuclear power and I’m going to defend myself with nuclear weapons.’ And of course it’s even worse when you say that and people know that you can actually defend yourself if you carry weapons.
“Once you’re a nuclear power, you feel like you have a force field around you, like the Starship Enterprise,” Carafano added. “If you look at the timing… are the Israelis going to attack you? I mean, they’re pretty busy right now. What’s Biden going to do? Biden isn’t going to do anything between now and the election and January, and if Trump wins, it’s going to be several months before he takes office.”
This image shows a replica of Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant on display at the International Conference on Nuclear Science and Technology in Isfahan on May 6, 2024. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Moore echoed Carafano’s assessment, calling it a “definite possibility,” but pointed to the limited power involved in declaring nuclear capabilities. In particular, he stressed that “declaring yourself a nuclear power and being able to actually deploy and use a nuclear weapon effectively are two entirely different things.”
“I do not think it is unreasonable to assume that Israel and/or the United States would take action to prevent this from happening following an Iranian ‘declaration’ or during the final steps required to effectively test a weapon and get it to a delivery vehicle,” Moore said.
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Carafano acknowledged that in the long run, possessing nuclear weapons is only a deterrent against other nuclear weapons, citing the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and Russia’s recent invasion, in which Ukraine repelled Moscow and even entered Russian territory this month.
“Nuclear weapons have a very limited use, which is to deter a nuclear conflict with another nuclear power. But other than that … if you can’t win a conventional war, you don’t start a nuclear war, right?” he said. “It’s not a free pass for the Iranians, and … five seconds after they declared themselves a nuclear power, the Saudis and the Turks and the Egyptians and others want to be a nuclear power too.”
This photo released on November 5, 2019 by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuges at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Iranian Atomic Energy Organization via AP, file)
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said nuclear incrementalism had “given way to significant nuclear progress by Khamenei during Biden’s tenure” and speculated that “it is entirely plausible that these are gains that Tehran would want to consolidate or immunize in the event of a Trump return.”
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“We should not forget that Iran’s original plan was to provide the world with a nuclear fait accompli before it was discovered in 2002,” Taleblu said. “Tehran pursued a fast-track program aimed at producing a handful of nuclear weapons to provide itself with status and security.”
“Basically, arming is a political decision, but it is a whole series of technical processes,” he added. “The decision whether to take it or not can be influenced by Western politics, for better or for worse.”
