A new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump nationally, although she lags behind him on issues most important to voters.
Harris secured 49% of the vote to Trump’s 45% in a one-on-one national battle, but her lead shrank to 47% to 44% as independent candidates entered the fray. Hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was at 5% of registered voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
For comparison, in July, the poll showed approval ratings for Trump at 43%, for President Biden at 42% and for Kennedy at 9%.
This result confirms the majority of recent national direct polls. Poll results are mixed on whether independent candidates help or hurt Harris.
Numerous opinion polls have shown that the contest has become significantly more exciting since Biden abruptly dropped out of the race on July 21 and passed the baton to Harris.
Despite Harris’ lead nationally, Trump received better marks from voters on the key issues underlying their vote.
These include the economy (46% to 37%), inflation (45% to 36%), immigration (46% to 36%), crime and security (42% to 39%) and the war between Israel and Hamas (38% to 33%).
Harris led on protecting democracy (43% to 37%), health care (43% to 36%), abortion (45% to 33%), gun violence (42% to 37%), Supreme Court appointments (42% to 37%) and race relations (45% to 31%).
Voters said the economy was their top issue, followed by inflation, protecting democracy, immigration, health care, crime and security, abortion, gun violence, Supreme Court appointments, the Israel-Hamas war, and race relations.
Harris sought to shore up economic support by unveiling several cost-of-living-reduction proposals on Friday, including a national ban on so-called “price gouging,” a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, a $6,000 increase in the child tax credit and more.
Trump and many economists criticized her policies, complaining about what she called “price gouging.” Her campaign’s description of the proposal was more reminiscent of price controls.
When voters were asked about their running mate, Democratic Minnesota Governor Tim Walz received a higher approval rating than Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio): 52% strongly or somewhat approved of the Democratic vice presidential candidate, and 45% said the same about the Republican vice presidential candidate.
Satisfaction with their candidate has seen a significant upswing for the Democrats. According to the poll, satisfaction with the Biden vs. Trump option has risen from 20 percent to 60 percent with the Harris vs. Trump option.
Overall, Harris seems to be more successful in mobilizing the Democratic base than Biden.
According to the Post-ABC-Ipsos poll, Harris is 25 percentage points ahead of Trump among voters under 40, while Biden is 7 percentage points ahead. Among black voters, Harris received 83 percent approval, while Biden received 79 percent.
Other surveys have found similar trends.
Harris leads Trump by 1.2 points in a head-to-head race in the latest RealClearPolitics national poll. That lead rises to 1.5 points in a five-candidate head-to-head race.
Recent polls have produced mixed results on whether including third-party candidates in a national comparison benefits Harris more than Trump. When Biden was at the top of the list, it generally boosted Trump’s numbers a bit.
On the RCP’s clear Electoral College district map, Trump narrowly won by 276 votes to 262, suggesting this will be a nail-biting race.
The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll was conducted between August 9 and 13 among 1,901 registered voters and 2,336 adults. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points among registered voters and two percentage points among adults.
Harris is traveling to Chicago this week for the Democratic National Convention. She was officially named the party’s nominee in a virtual vote earlier this month, so the event will be ceremonial in nature.
But the Democrats hope that the party convention will give them a further boost just 80 days before the election.
