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The Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays are two of the most inconsistent teams in MLB. The Blue Jays are 12 games out of the playoffs, while the Reds’ chances look a little better at just 5.5 games out of the National League wild card. When the Reds won four straight games last week, it looked like they could make the playoffs, but a sweep of the Kansas City Royals set them back. Cincinnati used a breakout inning to beat Toronto in the season opener on Monday night, but this pitchers’ duel could result in a much closer game. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Blue Jays prediction and pick.
Expected starters for the Reds-Blue Jays
Nick Martinez Comparisons Yariel Rodriguez
Nick Martinez (6-6) with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.05.
Last start: against Royals, 6 IP, 4 SO, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 ER, 1 HR
2024 Road Splits: (3-2) with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP.
Yariel Rodriguez (1-5) with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.29.
Last start: @ Cubs, 5 IP, 5 SO, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 3 HR
2024 Home Splits: (0-2) with an ERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 1.11.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Blue Jays Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+162)
Money line: +100
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-196)
Money line: -118
Over: 8.5 (-108)
Under: 8.5 (-112)
How to watch Reds vs. Blue Jays
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET/4:05 p.m. PT
TV: Bally Sports Ohio, Sportsnet
Stream: fuboTV (Click here for a free trial)
Why the Reds will cover/win the spread
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Nick Martinez was in top form when the Reds decided to put him back in the starting lineup. Martinez was a starter to begin the year, but allowed 19 earned runs in five games. He continued to play in longer games, but opposing teams managed to see through him for the second or third time. In June, the Reds finally stopped using him for long games, allowing nine earned runs in 19 games. The Reds saw enough to put him back in the rotation, and the move has paid off with just three earned runs in 18 innings.
Yariel Rodriguez ran into trouble in his last start at Wrigley Field, allowing three home runs to the Chicago Cubs. He’ll need to get those issues under control before facing the Reds, who are fifth in MLB with 37 home runs in 25 games over the last 30 days. The ball can fly through the turf at Rogers Centre, and it could be a long night for Rodriguez if he allows the Reds’ offense to really get going.
Why the Blue Jays will cover/win the spread
The record may not speak for itself, but Rodriguez has been outstanding at home this season. He has a 2.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Rodriguez has pitched 18 innings at Rogers Centre since returning to the Blue Jays on July 1, allowing four earned runs in that time. The Blue Jays’ offense looked quiet on Monday night, but it exploded on Tuesday to even the series. They could give Rodriguez plenty of help in this game.
Final Reds-Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Both of those offenses have been awful lately, and that could continue with two solid pitchers on Wednesday night. Martinez has been one of the Reds’ most consistent starters since returning to the rotation, and the same can be said for Rodriguez on the Jays’ side. Rodriguez is most comfortable on the mound at Rogers Centre, and it could be a pitching duel in the deciding game of this series.
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Final Reds-Blue Jays prediction and pick: Under 8.5 (-112)
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