According to a poll released Monday, Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate are trailing in three key swing states in this year’s election.
In November, control of the Senate is up for grabs as Democrats and Republicans see chances of establishing a majority. However, Democrats are defending several seats in battleground states, meaning they will have to defend almost every seat they currently hold to keep the majority. Democrats currently hold 51 seats, including four independents who caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.
This means that, depending on who wins the presidential election, Republicans only need to win one or two seats to gain a majority, since the vice president’s vote is the deciding factor.
Republicans are already clear favorites for the seat being vacated by independent Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia, one of the most conservative states in the country. Manchin is a former Democrat who still works with the party. Elsewhere, Democrats are defending seats in the Republican-leaning states of Montana and Ohio and vying for victory in elections in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, a new poll from the Independent Center on Monday showed Democrats with the advantage in three crucial Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll surveyed 500 voters in each state from August 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 points in each state.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are running to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin has a 10-point lead over Rogers in the poll (48 percent to 38 percent), but 15 percent of respondents say they are not yet sure who they will vote for in November.
In Pennsylvania, the poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. leading Republican Dave McCormick by 12 percentage points (51 percent to 39 percent). Another 10 percent said they were not yet sure how they would vote.
Wisconsin Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin had a nine-point lead over her Republican challenger Eric Hovde (50 percent to 41 percent). Nine percent of respondents said they were unsure who they would vote for.
Newsweek asked each of the campaigns for comment via email, the Rogers campaign via its contact form.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Although Democrats lead in the Independent Center poll, they still need to win elections in more Republican states.
Democratic Senators Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester are up for re-election in Ohio and Montana, respectively. Recent polls suggest Brown has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, while Tester is neck-and-neck with Republican Tim Sheehy.
Democrats expect seats in Florida and Texas to be potentially contested, but recent polls show Republicans still have the advantage in those states.
A June 8-9 Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research poll of 771 likely voters found former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trailing Republican Sen. Rick Scott by 2 percentage points (45 percent to 43 percent) in the state.
In Texas, an ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters conducted June 25-July 18 showed Senator Ted Cruz leading Representative Colin Allred by 8 points (54 percent to 46 percent).
