Spectators at an event in 2019 look at an MH370 wing flap found on the island of Pemba in Tanzania. It was … (+)
Ten years ago, a Malaysia Airlines flight disappeared without a trace and became one of the greatest mysteries in aviation history. An Australian researcher now says he knows why MH370 disappeared. His findings will change the story of the ill-fated plane with 227 passengers and 12 crew members on board.
Rather than MH370 being a blame-free story about a high-speed nosedive with too little fuel, Vincent Lyne says his research shows the actions of “a mastermind pilot who almost engineered an incredible, perfect disappearance in the southern Indian Ocean,” the associate researcher at the University of Tasmania’s Institute of Marine and Arctic Studies wrote in a LinkedIn post he confidently titled “MH370 mystery solved by science.”
A “perfect disappearance,” says Lyne, because the pilot, 53-year-old Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately flew the Boeing 777 into a 6,000-meter-deep hole in the seabed, surrounded by high ridges and other deep holes that made it an ideal hiding place. Previous theories have suggested that Shah deliberately crashed the plane to hatch a premeditated murder-suicide plan. If that’s true, why? We’ll probably never know, but a BBC documentary on MH370 mentions studies reporting high rates of mental health problems among pilots, including suicidal thoughts.
In his LinkedIn post earlier this month, Lyne said that after two years of review, his findings were ready for publication in Journal of Navigationwhich has previously published other analyses of the flight, which was due to fly from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, when it disappeared from radar. The mystery has prompted aviation experts, engineers, journalists and grieving family members to formulate sweeping theories, including one that cyberterrorists remotely hijacked the plane. But search efforts by air, satellite, surface and underwater have yet to provide conclusive answers.
That Lyne’s claims have already made numerous headlines and sparked online conversations on Reddit and elsewhere speaks to the ongoing fascination surrounding the disappearance of MH370.
“The fascination with the mysteries of ‘lost airplanes’ is an essential part of aviation culture, much like the mysteries of ‘lost ships’ are a part of maritime culture,” says Janet Bednarek, a professor at the University of Dayton in Ohio who teaches urban and aviation history.
“I do not have the expertise to judge the science behind this work – I leave that to the reviewers and experts in the field who will read the paper once it is published,” Bednarek added in an email. “It reads somewhat like a case for those determined to find Amelia Earhart’s plane or the Lost Patrol in the so-called Bermuda Triangle.”
“A highly complex mystery”
Aviation journalist Jeff Wise believes he has the expertise to judge Lyne’s scientific findings, but urges caution.
“I would put him in the category of people who are overstepping the boundaries of their professional expertise and making dubious claims about MH370,” said Wise, whose true-crime podcast “Deep Dive” regularly explores theories about the missing plane in an effort to separate speculation from fact.
“MH370 is a highly complex mystery,” Wise added, “and to truly get to grips with it will require the inclusion of evidence from a wide range of disciplines,” including satellite communications, marine biology, aircraft avionics and operations, and psychology.
Lyne has worked for the U.S. Geological Survey and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Falmouth, Massachusetts. In his LinkedIn post, he says his independent MH370 research showed that damage to the Boeing 777’s wings, flaps and flaperon was similar to that which occurred after Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger’s “controlled ditching” in the maneuver that became known as the “Miracle on the Hudson.”
A controlled ditching is a deliberate emergency landing of an aircraft on water. This method was used by Sullenberger after a bird struck US Airways Flight 1549 in January 2009, disabling both engines.
Two views of the same rubble
Wise’s skepticism about Lyne’s latest work is based on a number of factors, including the researcher’s quotes from former Canadian plane crash investigator and MH370 book author Larry Vance, who analyzed photos of confirmed aircraft parts recovered in Tasmania and concluded that the flaps were deployed as part of a deliberate ditching of the plane. However, others who have personally examined the plane’s wreckage, Wise said in a phone interview, have contradicted Vance, saying the flaps were not deployed and the plane was therefore not in landing position.
The Journal of Navigationpublished by Cambridge University Press, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
“People are fascinated by this case and don’t have the means to judge the claim of someone who says, ‘Listen, I have this 40-page document full of technical diagrams,'” said Wise, who wrote a book about the strange case of MH370 and also appeared as an expert in a three-part British docuseries released on Netflix titled. MH370: The plane that disappearedThe series presents three conflicting conspiracy theories about the plane’s disappearance and has been described by critics as both “ridiculous” and “convincing.”
A girl holds a balloon during an event organized by relatives of MH370 passengers in March to mark the 10th anniversary of the crash. … (+)
Now Lyne believes he knows exactly where the plane is at the eastern end of the Broken Ridge in the Indian Ocean, “this location needs to be checked as a top priority,” he said.
“Whether to search for it or not is up to the authorities and search companies, but as far as the science is concerned,” he wrote on LinkedIn, “we know why the previous searches failed and the science also clearly points to where MH370 is.”
In March this year, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said his government would “certainly be happy to reopen” the investigation into the flight’s disappearance if “convincing evidence” was presented. The mystery “affects people’s lives and whatever needs to be done needs to be done,” Ibrahim said. The anguished families of the missing crew and passengers have spent the last decade searching for justice.
Flight equipment is the key to answering the questions
Most seem to agree that the plane must be located before its fate can be known with certainty.
Daniel Bubb, a former pilot and associate professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who teaches the history of transportation and particularly aviation in the American West, called Lyne’s report “highly informative and promising,” but said solving the mystery ultimately depends on recovering the flight equipment.
“If the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder are still intact and accessible, then I think they will provide all the missing pieces and we can say with full confidence that the mystery is solved,” Bubb said in an email.
Bednarek agrees, saying that without this decisive evidence, “the proof of this theory is still in the future.”
The University of Dayton professor added that she hopes Lyne’s hypothesis will help investigators find the plane, for the benefit of families desperately trying to find closure over the tragedy that claimed their loved ones a decade ago. “Confirming what happened,” she said, “could contribute to new policies, procedures or technology to ensure something like this doesn’t happen again.”
