It has been almost two months since the start of free agency and Robert Covington, an eleven-year veteran, is still without a job.
Currently, our Sacramento Kings have 14 (of 15) spots filled on the main roster, all three on two-way contracts and one training camp contract. In theory, that means we can still sign Covington to a veteran minimum contract (or something similar) if they want to. But should they try to sign him?
As we’ve been talking about all offseason, the Kings need functional size. What do I mean by that? They need a big forward who can space the court, attack closeouts, defend, and provide secondary basket defense.
The question now is: Can Covington do what the Kings want from him?
As any good analyst will tell you, you need to take a holistic approach when evaluating players. This means you need to consider anecdotal, analytical, and actual (e.g. film analysis) information to form an opinion.
However, I have found over the years that there are a few statistics that provide a good indication of how good a role player can be in the modern NBA. Some metrics I like to look at are the player’s wingspan, 3-point percentage, 3-point attempts per 75, actual drive hit rate, drives per 36 minutes, Defensive Estimated-Plus Minus (DEF EPM), steal rate, and block rate.
|
statistics |
Output (percentile) |
|---|---|
|
span |
7’1.75 (78.) |
|
3-point percentage |
33.9% (34th place) |
|
3-point attempts per 75 possessions |
4.3 (36th place) |
|
Real shooting on drives |
66% (96th place) |
|
Trips per 36 minutes |
2.7 (17th place) |
|
Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus |
+2.5 (96.) |
|
Theft rate |
3.9% (99th place) |
|
Block rate |
3.6% (86th place) |
(Side note: All data in the table above was taken from Dunks & Threes and the Thinking Basketball database.)
Based on the numbers above, Covington certainly has the defensive strength to help our Kings. He has great size (6’10” with a 7’10” wingspan) and is a great defensive playmaker (99th percentile) and secondary scorer (86th percentile).
The problem, as it has been his entire career, is his offense. Covington is a below-average spacer, as evidenced by his 3-point efficiency and volume (remember, shot volume is more important than shot efficiency for the spacer).
As for Covington’s drive game, his efficiency is really high, but that’s probably due to his extremely low volume (he only had 37 drives in 23-24). In the 2021-22 season, Covington recorded 130 drives (according to NBA.com) and was only in the 15th percentile in true shooting on drives this season.
At this point in his career, Covington is still an elite defender who plays well per minute and is a clear minus on offense. If the Kings were to sign him, their offense would take a hit when he’s on the court, as neither of their key centers (Domantas Sabonis and Alex Len) are stretch bigs. So the Kings would have (at least) two subpar spacers on the court. However, it would be interesting to see some lineups with Covington and Trey Lyles manning the four and five spots.
Still, if I were the Kings, I would sign Covington. As we discussed in our post on Cedi Osman, the Kings need more defensive-minded players to add balance to their team and lineups.
Covington would certainly offer them that. And since he would be a low-risk addition, the Kings should call his agent and see what they can negotiate.
During his career, Covington played for the Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets. He averaged 10.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.5 SPG and 0.9 BPG.
