Keystone/Gaetan Bally
Real wage growth is likely to stagnate in most sectors as companies continue to base their wage forecasts on inflation forecasts.
In the run-up to next year’s wage negotiations, Swiss companies are hardly prepared to make any concessions. The approximately 4,500 companies that took part in the quarterly survey conducted by the Zurich Institute for Economic Research (KOF) are expecting wage increases of 1.6 percent on average. This corresponds exactly to their inflation expectations for the next twelve months.
These figures confirm those of an earlier KOF survey of the same companies, which in May forecast twelve-month inflation of 1.6% and wage increases of the same magnitude for 2025. In January, employers’ associations had still considered wage increases of 1.8%.
The KOF, for its part, reiterates its forecast of inflation of 1.0% next year, which would give employees a wage increase of 0.6%.
Given the chronic shortage of staff, the hotel and restaurant industry is likely to lead the way in wage increases, with an average of around 2.7 percent. Knowledge-intensive services such as information and communication (1.8 percent) are also likely to treat their employees most generously.
In contrast, retail (1.1%), wholesale (1.2%), the electrical industry (also 1.2%) and mechanical engineering (1.3%) remain cautious despite a slight recovery in the European economy. Employees in the health and social services sector (1.3%) must also expect a reduction in real wages.
Adapted from German by DeepL/ac
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