Three years have passed since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan. The group is still thriving, facing no legitimate challenge and courted by a large part of the international community.
The Taliban’s confidence was clearly expressed when they marked the anniversary with a military parade that displayed fighter jets and weapons captured after the US-led coalition’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. The parade was a clear slap in the face to Washington.
The Taliban have also managed to build relations with their neighbors, despite still enjoying pariah status during their first term in office. Chinese and Iranian diplomats attended the parade. Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov visited Kabul in August for high-level talks. China previously became the first country to officially receive a Taliban envoy in January, and Beijing appointed its own ambassador to Kabul last December.
Trade has also increased, especially with China. The Taliban and Chinese engineers officially broke ground in July on the Beijing-funded Aynak Mas mine, estimated to be home to the world’s second-largest copper deposit. Chinese officials have also held several meetings with the Taliban recently, raising hopes that Afghanistan can join Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
But appearances can be deceptive. The Taliban continue to face a multitude of problems that they are either unable or unwilling to solve. While they are safe in the short term, this could threaten the group’s power in the coming years.
This includes the Taliban’s inhumane treatment of women and girls, who continue to be denied education and most jobs. According to UNESCO, 2.5 million school-age girls are denied their right to education. The group also banned women from beauty salons and national parks last year – cruel measures that banish women from most public spaces.
Women also face a culture of extreme violence. In March, the Taliban announced that stoning as a form of punishment would return to Afghanistan. Just last week, the group ordered the stoning of a woman in Balkh province. The Center of Information Resilience’s Afghan Witness project, which has recorded over 300 cases of femicide by men since the Taliban took power, claims this is just the “tip of the iceberg” of gender-based violence.
The situation of women in Afghanistan is so bad that the United Nations has declared it the “worst in the world” and accused the Taliban of gender apartheid. Frustratingly for the Taliban, their treatment of women continues to be an obstacle to wider recognition. Even China is reluctant to legitimize the regime unless it improves its treatment of women.
The Taliban have also failed to resolve Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis, mainly because they are economically isolated. Half of the population now lives in poverty and is dependent on humanitarian aid.
The country remains heavily dependent on the international community – Washington is the largest donor, having provided $2.6 billion since 2021. The US also still holds billions in frozen assets from the Afghan central bank, which the Taliban say “belongs to Afghanistan”.
This is another weak point for the Taliban: they are hostage to Western governments that provide enough aid to keep Afghans alive, but not enough to rebuild the country. This makes the Taliban’s military parade an empty spectacle, nothing more.
In addition, Afghanistan has become a hotbed of terrorism under the leadership of the Taliban, which harms countries seeking to invest in Afghanistan and creates dangerous tensions with neighboring countries.
In March, a suicide bomber attacked a convoy of Chinese engineers working on a dam project in northwest Pakistan, killing six people. Pakistan accused a Taliban-linked group of being behind the attack, but the Taliban denies it. Previously, Islamic State attacked a hotel in Kabul popular with Chinese nationals in 2022 and threatened to bomb the Chinese embassy last year. Both are attempts to isolate the Taliban from Beijing and another factor that makes investing in Afghanistan a risky proposition.
The increase in terrorist attacks has also caused a rift between the Taliban and Pakistan, long considered close allies. The Taliban-funded TTP – or Pakistan Taliban – has carried out several attacks in Pakistan, killing civilians and military personnel. Islamabad responded by launching airstrikes on Afghan soil and forcibly repatriating thousands of Afghan refugees across the border, violating Afghanistan’s sovereignty and embarrassing the Taliban. This made the Taliban appear weak both at home and abroad.
Afghanistan has always had its problems. But the Taliban are creating their own problems by mistreating women, harboring terrorists and fighting with their neighbors. While the West can be blamed for the humanitarian crisis, the Taliban’s refusal to give in on human rights shows that they are unwilling to solve the problems of Afghans.
It is this attitude that is eroding the group’s legitimacy. A closer look reveals that the Taliban are a paper tiger, using brutality to compensate for poor governance. The recent killing of four Taliban fighters in Kabul by the Afghanistan Freedom Front is a reminder that the Taliban are much weaker than they appear and that they have opponents in Afghanistan.
Regimes without legitimacy cannot last long in Afghanistan before they are swept away by domestic challengers or foreign powers. The Taliban’s history of rise, fall and resurrection confirms that power in Afghanistan is always fragile.
This is something the Taliban should not forget in their fourth year in power. To gain the legitimacy they crave and need, they must earn it through responsible and humane governance. If the Taliban do not learn this lesson, their group could face challenges and difficulties.
