A tropical disturbance, which we first brought to your attention in this newsletter on Tuesday, will slowly develop as it approaches the easternmost Caribbean islands next Monday and Tuesday.
It shouldn’t be too surprising given the time of year, but our reliable forecast models are quite optimistic about the storm’s development through mid-week, with the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and perhaps the Dominican Republic and Haiti likely to be affected.
Anyone interested in the Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean as far as Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should follow this closely over the next few days.
By the end of next week, trends indicate we will have a significant tropical system – possibly a strengthening hurricane – in the western Atlantic, so anyone in the eastern Bahamas or planning a trip there should pay close attention to next week’s forecast.
It is too early to speculate whether this could pose a threat to the US mainland.
As is usually the case with forecasts a week or more out, there are too many unknowns to make any real statements about whether the system could ultimately threaten the continental U.S. We can say, however, that the steering pattern will support a northward turn through next Thursday, as a depression in the jet stream off the East Coast will weigh on the system while it is near or north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
As was the case with Debby last week, how far the developing system turns and when it does so will depend on countless factors, including the organization of the system, which are still highly uncertain 6 or 7 days out. Many of the early models predicted Debby would turn east of Florida and move into the Gulf of Mexico, so you should view speculation at this point with healthy skepticism.
Generally speaking, we’d like to see that there’s a potential escape route before the severe weather reaches us here on land, but it’s too early to know for sure if it will take that route. For us in South Florida and here in the U.S., the most important thing is to watch the trends through next week. It’s August, so it’s always a good idea to check in regularly in the tropics.
Debby was a tropical event, but heavy rains spread to the northern United States
Debby lost its tropical characteristics overnight and tracked along an approaching cold front over the Mid-Atlantic. The rich tropical air will continue to bring the threat of significant flooding across the Northeast through tomorrow morning, with an additional risk for a few tornadoes in parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and eastern New York today.
NOAA doubles forecast for hyperactive hurricane season
On Thursday, NOAA, the parent organization of the National Weather Service, released its final forecast for hurricane season, which is traditionally the strongest part of the season. Its forecast remained largely unchanged from the last forecast on May 23 and continues to predict an extremely active hurricane season that could be among the strongest on record.
The forecast calls for at least 13 more named storms this season, up to 24 in total, and up to 13 hurricanes, including Beryl and Debby from earlier this season. Up to 7 hurricanes could reach Category 3 or higher.
If these predictions come true, it means that 85% of the hurricane season’s activity is still ahead of us.
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