The world is falling far short of its pledge to triple the amount of wind energy it uses, made at global climate talks last year, according to a report by an energy think tank released Thursday.
In December last year, countries committed themselves at the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 to Tripling By 2030, all electricity is to be generated from renewable energy. To achieve this goal, wind energy in particular must triple, according to the International Energy Agency and others.
Ember, a London-based nonprofit energy organization, examined the national targets of 70 countries that generate 99 percent of existing wind energy. The company predicts that wind energy will double, not triple, over the next six years compared to the base year of 2022.
The report examined wind turbines both onshore and offshore.
“Governments lack ambition when it comes to wind energy, and particularly onshore wind,” said Katye Altieri, power analyst at Ember. “Wind energy is not getting enough attention.”
The wind often blows strongest when the sun is not high in the sky, making it a good complement to solar energy in efforts to clean electricity 24 hours a day.
The report also examined each country’s progress toward its own goals. The United States fared worst, missing the target by 100 gigawatts, enough to power more than 30 million homes. The target used for the United States comes from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which is part of the Department of Energy. In an email exchange, the department declined to comment.
The second largest gap between national targets and wind power projects under development was in India with more than 30 gigawatts. Despite considerable wind power potentialOnly 4% of India’s electricity comes from wind power, Altieri said. Several officials at India’s power ministry did not respond to emailed requests for comment.
The top performers by this metric were Brazil and Finland, which are on track to exceed their wind energy targets by 15 and 11 gigawatts respectively. They were among only 10 countries that will exceed their targets. Seven of these 10 countries were in Europe, including Turkey.
Brian O’Callaghan, a senior researcher at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at Oxford University in England, stressed that technology was key. Winds are stronger at high altitudes, so taller turbines can generate more electricity.
Over the past two decades, there have been “dramatic technological improvements that have led to taller turbines, especially offshore,” he said.
This means that there is a great opportunity for countries that are willing to seize this chance.
Wind speed also plays a role. Doubling the wind speed leads to an eightfold increase in performance.
“Most coastal states have barely exploited their offshore wind resources,” he said. “The UK is a prime example.”
Some countries have strong winds but the construction of wind turbines is not yet very advanced. Altieri pointed to Russia, Japan and South Korea in this category.
Russia has one of the largest wind potentials of any country, according to NREL, but Ember says the country will generate less than one percent of its electricity from wind power in 2023. John Reilly of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has studied energy policy and climate change for 45 years, says Russia is not committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
“There are huge amounts of natural gas and coal there, so there is no real economic incentive for the country to develop wind power,” he said.
The Russian Energy Ministry did not respond to emails seeking comment.
Like many other islands, Japan is very windy, but wind generates only a little more than 1 percent of its electricity, Altieri said.
“The sea is very deep right off the coast of Japan, which makes it more difficult,” said Reilly. The country is also steeply mountainous, which makes the placement of wind turbines difficult, he said.
Strong regulations in South Korea are making it difficult to build wind turbines and public opinion has further slowed development, he said. Worldwide, there are often been Resistance to wind turbines.
Japan’s trade and economy ministry did not respond to email requests for comment. South Korea’s energy agency could not be reached for comment.
More broadly, the falling price of solar energy could be one reason for the comparatively low interest in wind energy, says Reilly.
“When many of these big commitments were made,” he said, “wind seemed to be the cheapest renewable energy source.”
But since 2020, the price of solar energy has fallen dramatically, he said.
Although some countries are lagging behind, according to study leader Altieri, there is cause for encouragement.
“Europe is doing great,” she said, despite the fact that the North Sea, an incredible wind resource, is barely being used.
She predicted that Europe and China would continue to dominate the expansion of wind energy.
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