Top line
Vice President Kamala Harris polled four percentage points higher than former President Donald Trump in the first major poll following the Democratic Party Convention, consistent with her pre-DNC position.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz at a rally in Las Vegas on Saturday, August 17. … (+)
Key data
A Morning Consult poll conducted Aug. 23-25 has Harris ahead of Trump, 48% to 44%. Those results mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 poll conducted ahead of the Democratic National Convention, which concluded Thursday in Chicago.
The poll is the latest to show a shift in favor of Democrats since Harris entered the race – in a poll of registered voters conducted by the Economist/YouGov between August 17 and 20 and released Wednesday, Harris had a three-percentage-point lead over Trump (46% to 43%), roughly equivalent to Harris’s 46% to 44% lead about a week earlier.
In an Ipsos, ABC News and Washington Post poll released on August 18, Harris led Trump by 49% to 45% among registered voters and 51% to 45% among likely voters.
In a CBS and YouGov poll also released on August 18, Harris was three percentage points ahead of Trump among likely voters (51% to 48%). In the swing states, however, the candidates were tied at 50%.
In an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters released on August 15, Harris is ahead 50% to 46%.
Only one major poll from the last two weeks, conducted by Fox News and released on August 15, showed Trump leading among registered voters by 50 percent to 49 percent.
Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Trump has led Harris in at least eight more polls, but most of them show Harris narrowing Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval ratings rising slightly since announcing her candidacy.
Large number
1.5. That’s how many points Harris is ahead of Trump, according to the latest RealClearPolitics poll average. The weighted average from FiveThirtyEight shows Harris ahead by 3.5 points.
Surprising fact
According to a Monmouth University poll released on August 14, enthusiasm among Democrats has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46 percent in June to 85 percent today. Among Republicans, however, enthusiasm has stagnated at 71 percent.
How does Harris fare against Trump in the swing states?
In the seven swing states that are likely to decide the election, Harris leads Trump by a total of one point, according to a poll by the Cook Political Report: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied in Georgia and is three points behind Trump in Nevada, according to the Cook poll.
Contra
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short-term” boost in the polls for Harris in the coming weeks, as her entry into the race is expected to give Democrats new momentum. In a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was released, he referred to the expected boost as a “Harris honeymoon.”
Important background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of resisting calls from within his own party to abandon his re-election campaign following his disastrous performance at the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied behind her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination in a virtual roll call before the convention. Harris nominated Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats held their convention in Chicago from July 18 to 22.
More information
Trump’s lead over Biden and Harris has jumped after the RNC, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll (Forbes)
This is how Kamala Harris fares in polls against Trump – while Biden drops out and supports Harris (Forbes)
Harris’ lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll shows (Forbes)
