While the entire Middle East remains in suspense over how the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” will react to July 31, assassination In Tehran, the decision of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh to make Yahya Sinwar its new leader raises questions about the group’s future strategy.
Unlike Haniyeh, who was based in Qatar and served as Hamas’s main representative abroad, Sinwar has been in Gaza since his release from an Israeli prison in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange. Sinwar, whom the United States set a terrorist in 2015, served as Hamas’s political bureau in the Gaza Strip until 2017 when he became the leader of the movement there.
As if you were dead Hamas commander Mohammed al-Deif, Sinwar is one of Hamas’ long-serving military commanders and is considered by Israel to be the mastermind of the group’s brutal October 7, 2023, attack that killed 1,339 Israeli soldiers and civilians.
Given the very different circumstances under which Haniyeh and Sinwar operated, it is reasonable to ask whether the formal change in leadership will also bring about changes in the way the Palestinians conduct their struggle against Israel, how they behave towards other Palestinian factions and how they conduct their relations with foreign powers.
Hamas is not a monolithic system. Different Hamas figures approach issues in different ways, which underscores the divisions within the organization, which also illustrate the differences between Haniyeh and Sinwar.
Haniyeh was known for his moderation and pragmatism. He was an influential voice within Hamas support for diplomacy with Israel when necessary and a willingness to compromise. Sinwar, on the other hand, is considered a hardliner. As the new Hamas leader, he will probably prove to be less willing to compromise with the Israelis.
Before Haniyeh’s assassination late last month, Sinwar already had a lot of influence on Hamas’ negotiations with Israel. However, some experts believe that without Haniyeh as a counterweight to Sinwar’s hardline positions, Hamas is likely to become increasingly Maximalist positions in this war.
Khaled Elgindy, director of the Palestine program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, expects Sinwar to take a defiant stance: “At the very least, we can expect Hamas’ decision-making to become tougher,” he told RS.
“There is no doubt that a ceasefire will be more difficult to achieve… Because Sinwar’s appointment is also an act of resistance, designed to send a message to Israel that Hamas is not only not defeated, but is ready to keep fighting,” Elgindy added.
Hamas declares its commitment to unity with Fatah
It is uncertain whether Sinwar will approach the important unity talks with other Palestinian factions – especially between Hamas and Fatah – differently.
Eight days before his assassination in the Iranian capital signed a reconciliation declaration in Beijing, in which Hamas, Fatah and twelve other Palestinian groups agreed to “end the division and strengthen Palestinian unity”.
Some experts say Sinwar’s rise will not necessarily change Hamas’s stance on reconciliation talks with Fatah and other Palestinian groups.
“The main obstacle to the success of such initiatives is neither Hamas nor Fatah, but (Palestinian Authority President) Mahmoud Abbas,” Mouin Rabbani, a Palestinian political analyst and editor of a publication of the Institute for Arab Studies, said in an interview with RS. “As long as Abbas is in office, the successful implementation of any initiative is zero,” he added.
Still, Elgindy believes Sinwar’s replacement of Haniyeh “exacerbates the already bleak prospects for national reconciliation” because Sinwar is “more skeptical of concessions to Abbas and Fatah.” He also told RS that undermining the potential for Palestinian unity was likely one of Israel’s motives for killing Haniyeh last month. (Israel is widely seen as the perpetrator of the assassination, but has not claimed responsibility.)
Foreign support for Hamas
Over the years, there have been repeated disagreements among senior Hamas members over the organization’s relations with foreign powers. When the Arab Spring broke out in Syria in 2011, for example, Hamas leaders were unable to reach a consensus on how to deal with the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
Some within Hamas saw Damascus as a key sponsor and believed that a positive relationship with the Syrian regime was necessary, while others believed that supporting Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated elements in the anti-Baathist uprising was both a strategic and moral imperative. This is important to note because Hamas emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood before 1998. officially founded in Gaza during the 1st Intifada in 1987.
Ten months after the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, Sinwar will be a voice for building good relations between Hamas and virtually any government or organization in the world willing to help the Palestinian group in one way or another. Simply put, Sinwar believes that decisions about Hamas’s foreign relations must be based on practical considerations and interests, not ideological factors. This is undoubtedly one reason why Sinwar will most likely seek to maintain close ties with Qatar and Iran – the militant group’s largest supplier of weapons and training.
Of course, unlike Haniyeh, Sinwar cannot travel outside the Gaza Strip, at least not while Israel’s war against the enclave continues. By all accounts, Sinwar is Israel’s main assassination target and has been trapped mostly in underground tunnels since October 7, although Haniyeh and other Hamas officials outside the Gaza Strip have apparently been able to communicate with him.
“Since Sinwar is holed up somewhere in the Gaza Strip, his rise will not significantly change the way other countries deal with Hamas, which in turn will continue to deal with Hamas leadership abroad such as (Khaled) Meshaal, (Khalil) Al-Hayya, (Mousa) Abu-Marzouq, etc.,” Elgindy told RS.
Given Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran, Hamas is unlikely to agree to move its political leadership outside of Qatar. “With its official leader now in Gaza, Hamas will be less responsive to potential threats that the US and Israel constantly accuse Doha of threatening to expel Qatar-based Hamas leaders,” Rabbani said.
By killing Haniya, a more moderate politician, Israel will now wage its war against Hamas with a less compromising military commander. The new Hamas leadership will likely make armed resistance its top priority and see it as the only realistic path as Hamas’s political and military wings become increasingly blurred.
For Israel, this shift is useful in selling its narrative that Hamas is the main reason there is no peace in Gaza. That message may resonate with most lawmakers and much of the foreign policy establishment in Washington. But when it comes to ending the enclave’s brutal war, Sinwar’s rise to power is unlikely to bring anything positive.
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