Preliminary trailer net orders increased by about 1,000 units from June to July, but were down 7,200 units from July of last year and 37% below the prior-year figure, ACT Research reported. The seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle pushes the July number up to 10,300 units. Final July results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate should be within 5% of the final order number.
This month’s data shows that year-to-date net trailer orders in the U.S. are just under 82,000 units, down 26% from the first seven months of 2023, noted Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research.
“Despite the sequential improvement in orders, the July data continues to confirm our expectations of weaker demand against a backdrop of the increased order velocity of recent years, the continued weak fundamentals of the rental truck market and already filled dealer inventories,” McNealy explained. “Nevertheless, it is important to remember that we are in the weakest months of the annual cycle in terms of orders, which at least suggests that there is no catalyst for stronger orders before the fall and the opening of OEMs’ order books for 2025.”
While ACT Research expects fleets to earn more money later this year, increasing their purchasing power, this improvement is based on a very low base, as carrier profits in the first half of 2024 were at levels not seen since early 2010. Looking ahead to 2025, the trailer industry is also under pressure from regulation, as fleets’ willingness to spend will tend to buy new power units before the EPA puts its 2027 regulations into effect, according to the market forecaster.
“Industry anecdotes suggest the ‘pause button’ is likely to remain pressed through the end of 2024, although dealers are making progress in adjusting inventory levels,” McNealy said. However, cancellations remain high, raising concerns among trailer manufacturers about how long demand will remain subdued and whether the supply chain will be ready to respond if demand does indeed increase.”
ACT Research State of the Industry: US Trailers The report provides a monthly overview of the latest U.S. trailer market statistics, as well as OEM trailer manufacturers’ build plans and market indicators, broken down by all major trailer types, including backorders, construction, inventories, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory deliveries.
