Former President Trump is trailing Vice President Harris in the crucial swing states – a first sign that the 2024 election campaign is getting tighter after President Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic ticket.
In the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump trailed Harris by four percentage points, with Harris still holding 50 percent support to Trump’s 46 percent, according to a New York Times/Sienna poll released Saturday.
The new poll represents a significant reversal from President Biden’s numbers, which showed the incumbent trailing Trump in most key swing states in the final weeks of his campaign before announcing on July 21 that he would not run for re-election.
The poll, which included more than 600 voters in each of three key states, was conducted August 5-9.
However, other recent polls showed that Trump is doing far better in the crucial swing states.
According to polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage between August 6 and 8, Trump was one percentage point ahead of Harris in Arizona, three percentage points ahead in Nevada and two percentage points ahead in Pennsylvania.
In an Insider Advantage poll of 800 likely voters in Wisconsin, Trump leads the Badger State with 49%, ahead of Harris with 48%.
In Pennsylvania, Trump led Harris 46% to 44%, with 5% wanting another candidate and 5% undecided, according to the Trafalgar/Insider Advantage poll. And in Arizona, the former president had a similar lead of 48% to 47%, with 4% wanting another candidate and 1% undecided.
Trump is doing best against Harris in North Carolina, where polls show him ahead 49% to 45%, with 4% supporting another candidate and 1% undecided. Nor is Nevada doing the same as Harris: Trump is leading the Silver State 48% to 45%, according to polls from Trafalgar and Insider Advantage.
However, the Times/Sienna poll found that Democrats’ attitudes toward their candidate have improved significantly.
In May, 60% of Democrats said they were satisfied with their choice of candidates for the 2024 election, a number that rose to 87% in the August poll.
Harris performed better than Biden in swing states on a number of metrics, the poll found. She performed better with young voters and black voters, whose support for Biden had waned in recent months, and more voters trusted Harris than Biden to get the economy under control.
Even though 40 percent of voters had a “very unfavorable” opinion of Harris, that figure was still seven percentage points ahead of Trump, who was viewed unfavorably by 47 percent of respondents.
However, the poll did not only bring bad news for Trump.
A full 42 percent of registered voters said Harris was “too liberal or progressive,” and voters were more likely to trust Trump than Harris to solve the country’s biggest problems.
On economic issues, Trump fared much better: 53 percent of voters said they trusted the former president more than Harris, while 44 percent of voters preferred the vice president. On immigration, the Republican candidate had a five-point lead: 51 percent of voters said they favored Harris, 46 percent said they favored Harris.
“By and large, I think it’s virtually a tie in these swing states right now. Everything is more or less within the margin of error,” pollster Carly Cooperman told the Washington Post, but noted that Harris’ lead is real.
“People are responding really positively to her candidacy right now. The message of hope is refreshing, but we’ll have to wait and see if it holds up. No one knows if this will be a success or have a lasting impact, but she clearly has real momentum right now,” Cooperman said.
