KANSAS CITY, Missouri – High-profile ballot measures – such as the abortion rights, sports betting and minimum wage proposals on the Missouri ballot in November – can boost voter turnout.
According to Greg Vonnahme, associate professor of humanities and social sciences at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, Republicans used the Defense of Marriage Amendments to support George W. Bush’s re-election campaign in 2004.
Death Palmer, KSHB 41
It worked, but don’t expect these ballot measures to create a blue wave in the Show-Me State.
“In Missouri, we don’t really expect many of the seats at the state level to be that hotly contested. So is this going to help Democrats at the state level win any of those seats? Probably not,” Vonnahme said. “The races could be closer than they otherwise would be.”
But that doesn’t mean there won’t be a potential impact. Vonnahme said there could be a spike in elections at a more local level that favors candidates who support the ballot measures.
“Could the ballot points have an impact on some of the lower ballot races? You’d probably have to go down a little bit,” Vonnahme said. “There could be some races for House or Senate seats that are close and that could be decided based on turnout on those ballot initiatives. But at the federal level, I don’t think it’s going to be so close that we’d see a significant difference.”
American Gaming Association
Even if the Democrats were to achieve some successes in Parliament, this would not shake the Republican two-thirds majority.
But Missouri voters have passed such initiatives before. The initiative petition process has been used before to expand Medicaid, legalize marijuana and raise the minimum wage.
In November, voters will be faced with three seemingly popular issues.
“Abortion rights have been hard to stop in recent years, even in very Republican states,” Vannahme said. “The minimum wage has also remained constant. Missouri has already passed a minimum wage increase. It includes paid sick leave, and it will be interesting to see how voters respond to that.”
Sports betting legislation has been at an impasse in Missouri for two years, but it’s still a good bet that it will pass. It’s legal in all border states except Oklahoma.
“When neighboring countries legalize sports betting, there is competitive pressure on other countries to do the same. Because even if they may not want to legalize sports betting themselves, they feel this pressure because their citizens and residents can still access these services.”
Death Palmer, KSHB 41
Polls suggest these ballot measures are more likely to be supported by Democrats, but Vannahme said there may be strong bipartisan support.
“Some of these issues are quite popular with Republican voters as well – the minimum wage does well across the board with Republicans and Democrats,” he said. “We’ve seen that abortion does quite well even in some very Republican states and some very Republican areas.”
The issue of abortion will probably make the most headlines – and generate unlimited money, since, unlike the election candidates, there are no upper limits on campaign donations.
Two years ago, Kansas residents rejected a bill that would have restricted abortion in the state. Now Missouri voters will have a chance to have their say on the issue.
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