Prepare for snow and winter storms with these tips
Testing your snow gear and keeping extra clothes and blankets on hand will help you be prepared for a winter storm.
Michael V. Pettigano, NorthJersey.com
They say August is like the Sunday of summer, so it’s best to be prepared for the fact that in North Jersey, a crisp fall could give way to a wet and perhaps not-so-white winter, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.
The magazine, which has been producing weather forecasts since the 19th century, expects the coming winter season to be a “wet winter whirlwind” for the country, as a climate pattern known as La Niña – which the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says is likely to occur between September and November – could bring significant weather changes across the country.
“The Farmers’ Almanac winter weather forecast predicts a season of violent storms bringing both rain and snow, with little respite in between,” the almanac predicts.
Winter in New England – Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont – and the Northeast – New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland – promises to be stormy, with above-average rainfall and average to above-average temperatures, the almanac says.
However, New Jersey and parts of the tri-state area are in a gray zone where temperatures are above average and precipitation can be sleet or rain, depending on elevation, according to a map produced by the almanac.
New Jersey winter weather outlook: wet and mild or wet and cold?
This winter, milder than usual temperatures are expected across the Garden State, likely due to La Niña. However, New Jersey meteorologists are almost entirely divided on the type of precipitation to expect.
“Snow will be prevalent primarily in inland and mountainous areas, while sleet and rain will be more common near the coast, particularly near and along the I-95 corridor,” the almanac said.
If the forecasts hold true, that means residents north and west of Interstate 95 in New Jersey, including Morris, Passaic, Essex and most of Bergen – an area called the Piedmont – will see more snowfall, while areas south and east of the fork, or the coastal plain, are more likely to see sleet and rain.
The I-95 corridor, often mentioned by meteorologists when describing the large elevation changes in New Jersey, is also called the Fall Line. South and east of the line is relatively flat land from the ocean to Interstate 95, while west and north of the line the elevation increases over a short distance to include larger hills, less flat land, and eventually the Appalachian Mountains.
For ski lovers, above-average snowfall is forecast in the Northeastern states, and the Almanac’s forecasters predict they will be “a target for a spate of storms” this winter. They predict temperatures will be closer to average or above.
The temperatures appear to be well-aligned with a La Niña year, in which winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north. The natural climate pattern is characterized by cooler-than-average sea water in the Pacific Ocean and is likely to occur between September and November, climate experts predict.
A winter storm in early December, an “active” one in late January
A coastal storm along the East Coast in the first week of December could bring mixed precipitation followed by very cold temperatures, Sandi Duncan, editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, told USA TODAY.
In mid-January, large parts of New England and New York can expect several inches of snow thanks to a “quick snowfall,” Duncan said. Late January is expected to be “very active,” with a “major storm” dumping 6 inches or more of snow in Delaware, Maryland and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, while southern New York and New England will see less snow, Duncan told USA TODAY. The storm is expected to bring strong, gusty winds, the almanac added.
And what about Thanksgiving and Christmas? Duncan told USA TODAY that most of the country can expect a rainy Thanksgiving except “way out in the Southwest.” And don’t expect a white Christmas, either. It seems that it will be “more wet than white in most areas,” Duncan said.
Did the Farmers’ Almanac correctly predict last winter’s weather?
The Farmers’ Almanac predicted “heavy rain/sleet and snowstorms” for residents along the I-95 corridor from Washington, DC to Boston, which proved partially correct.
The almanac has several New Jersey ties: It was founded in 1818 by David Young, a poet, astronomer and teacher, and publisher Jacob Mann, who printed the first issue at The Almanac Publishing Company in Morristown, Morris County. Duncan is the magazine’s first female editor in 208 years. She is a native of the Garden State and works from there, she told NorthJersey.com on Monday.
Now based in New Hampshire, the almanac says it uses a mathematical and astronomical formula that takes into account solar activity, tidal activity of the moon and the positions of the planets. Like its counterpart, the 1792 Old Farmer’s Almanac, it boasts an accuracy of 80 to 85 percent in its predictions, although this has been questioned by educators over the years.
Overall, the Farmers’ Almanac was not entirely accurate in its prediction of a cold winter for 2023/24, as it was actually the warmest winter on record. However, for the North Jersey region, the predictions were not too far off.
The almanac accurately predicted an arctic cold snap with heavy rains and snowfall in the east between January 12 and 15. During that time, a storm dumped several inches of snow on North Jersey. The almanac also predicted a possible snow event in the northeast in mid-February and was almost right: A winter storm dumped snow across the region on February 12 and 13, dropping more than a foot of snow in some areas.
Many find the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac, which also predicts future weather, interesting reading. Although both magazines have numerous online articles and each has a strong following – well over a million followers on Facebook – the century-old publications are best known for selling their books in bookstores and online each year. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is expected to be published later this month.
Email: [email protected]; Twitter: @LoriComstockNJH or on Facebook.
